smitheric1970
Long

Oil Long - 70 Level

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
677 views
15
677 8
My apologies for the short summary, I will add more later, but here is my view in short.

I believe the run up in oil will continue; potentially on a quick path to 68/69

I am advising a long entry at current price, initially looking for 68.18 and believe that prices will create higher support at the 68.18 level. Targeting 69.37 and 70.56 as profit levels.

Long Entry: 65.49-66.24
TP1: 69.37 (Close half positions at 69.37 - Re-add long positions on pullback to 68.18)
TP2: 70.56 (Close all positions)

Good trading all!
Trade active
Comment: Yesterday went no-where but... being long that is a better direction than down. This chart shows my current bullish bias maintained; however if prices break below 65.2 again then I am concerned that they will test the 64.6x level.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...

Good trading all!
Comment: Did not get the press up to this trade that I was hoping for but I am still looking for prices to move up as; although quicker than I'd hoped, they have found the lower Demand level shown on my last update:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Comment: Here is a simpler view of the last chart; using high/low pivots. Confusion on the far left is clarified; although there is still Supply/Resistance just overhead we still potentially have strong demand here following a break back above the last two strong breakdown levels at the 64 level. Short term, I am looking for a test of 67.00 and looking for 64.62 Demand/Support.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Comment: This H4 view looking left at 2014 side by side with current prices shows the potential for the 64.62 support and 67 test - and my overall view of the 69-70.x targets.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Trade closed manually: Unfortunately this one sold off at the zone I was looking to overtake; back to the drawing board.

63.43 has been a critical level since Jan/Feb; If prices move back above it short term then I'll go back to this same view and find another long entry; if prices continue down, I'll re-assess for a lower long entry.
Eric,
What convinces you that the general direction is still long?
It does appear "long in the tooth" :-) but what do you think is actually holding it 'up'?
Reply
@kome-on, Agree, getting long in the tooth but I believe we may see a few dollars higher: Venezuelan output falling; Brent/Crude spread above 3.5 favors US exports; technically - we have not yet seen a Lower Low on the Daily continuous chart and on front/back month the March swing high was a Higher High over Jan/Feb swing high; as well, back in 2010 when QE1 ended, monthly bars dropped and closed at the 71.5 level prior to re-initiation of QE2; there were many other production factors involved but I believe there may be the some confluence in where prices may see a near term cap without QE vs price drop when QE sessions ended. I believe we will see potential highs this year of 69.3-70.6
Reply
@kome-on, This is what I was referring to on the higher highs and lows on the front and back month charts; prices created a lower high but followed that up with a higher high; so no sign of reversal or top yet.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/h/HfAkaOBh.png
Reply
@kome-on, Or..... maybe it will do the opposite of what I said. :) Yikes!

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/ObaShuCk.png
Reply
Agree on your supply/demand zones a.k.a POC ;)
It's showing support on the 64 area, but I rather say it's being attracted there, so wherever it goes, it needs a strong pull with volume on it.
Reply
smitheric1970 purpurato59
@purpurato59, Yes, currently above the POC, fingers crossed - month has ended so maybe price has some free range to run above the monthly 200 MA again
Reply
smitheric1970 purpurato59
@purpurato59, Showing current range I'm looking for and POC on CLK8 and comparison to the 2014 swing.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/m/MX8bV3bx.png
Reply
Agree! Thanks)
Reply
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