My apologies for the short summary, I will add more later, but here is my view in short.
I believe the run up in oil will continue; potentially on a quick path to 68/69
I am advising a long entry at current price, initially looking for 68.18 and believe that prices will create higher support at the 68.18 level. Targeting 69.37 and 70.56 as profit levels.
Long Entry: 65.49-66.24 TP1: 69.37 (Close half positions at 69.37 - Re-add long positions on pullback to 68.18) TP2: 70.56 (Close all positions)
Good trading all!
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Yesterday went no-where but... being long that is a better direction than down. This chart shows my current bullish bias maintained; however if prices break below 65.2 again then I am concerned that they will test the 64.6x level. s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/v/v0zUsrck.png
Good trading all!
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Did not get the press up to this trade that I was hoping for but I am still looking for prices to move up as; although quicker than I'd hoped, they have found the lower Demand level shown on my last update: s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/s/syhT0BJN.png
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Here is a simpler view of the last chart; using high/low pivots. Confusion on the far left is clarified; although there is still Supply/Resistance just overhead we still potentially have strong demand here following a break back above the last two strong breakdown levels at the 64 level. Short term, I am looking for a test of 67.00 and looking for 64.62 Demand/Support. s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/n/NLPMw6wL.png
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This H4 view looking left at 2014 side by side with current prices shows the potential for the 64.62 support and 67 test - and my overall view of the 69-70.x targets.
Unfortunately this one sold off at the zone I was looking to overtake; back to the drawing board.
63.43 has been a critical level since Jan/Feb; If prices move back above it short term then I'll go back to this same view and find another long entry; if prices continue down, I'll re-assess for a lower long entry.
Eric,
What convinces you that the general direction is still long?
It does appear "long in the tooth" :-) but what do you think is actually holding it 'up'?
smitheric1970
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@kome-on, Agree, getting long in the tooth but I believe we may see a few dollars higher: Venezuelan output falling; Brent/Crude spread above 3.5 favors US exports; technically - we have not yet seen a Lower Low on the Daily continuous chart and on front/back month the March swing high was a Higher High over Jan/Feb swing high; as well, back in 2010 when QE1 ended, monthly bars dropped and closed at the 71.5 level prior to re-initiation of QE2; there were many other production factors involved but I believe there may be the some confluence in where prices may see a near term cap without QE vs price drop when QE sessions ended. I believe we will see potential highs this year of 69.3-70.6
smitheric1970
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@kome-on, This is what I was referring to on the higher highs and lows on the front and back month charts; prices created a lower high but followed that up with a higher high; so no sign of reversal or top yet.
Agree on your supply/demand zones a.k.a POC ;)
It's showing support on the 64 area, but I rather say it's being attracted there, so wherever it goes, it needs a strong pull with volume on it.
smitheric1970
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@purpurato59, Yes, currently above the POC, fingers crossed - month has ended so maybe price has some free range to run above the monthly 200 MA again
smitheric1970
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@purpurato59, Showing current range I'm looking for and POC on CLK8 and comparison to the 2014 swing.
What convinces you that the general direction is still long?
It does appear "long in the tooth" :-) but what do you think is actually holding it 'up'?