My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to the $42.13 longer-term (purple dotted line).
OPEC... or Saudi Arabia, rather, will continue to put the big hurt on US shale plays. The EIA crude inventory report shown a surplus of 8.9 million barrels, following a increase of 10.1 million barrels the following month. The data was even more , suggesting an increase of over 12 million barrels.
US shale companies will continue to pump, even as rigs fall to multi-year lows. Even given the 120+ days of declining gas prices, demand is still not there.
Potential long accumulation could be interesting in low $42, perhaps lower. However, $80/90 barrel oil is not even going to be possible. $55/60 seems more realistic.
You are right, though. It is comprised of a lot of factors, and I try to comprise a lot of them while conducting my analysis, which is why I tend to forecast a lot of these moves. $48/$50 will likely be a stronger supply zone, while I don't see any true price inflection until $53.50/bbl.
Crude did have a nice day, today. In downward moves like seen in crude, these days can occur often. The only issue I've seen thus far is that when everyone is willing to call a bottom, it breaks lower.
With the US stockpiling 8-10 million barrels a week in surplus, it's hard to see it change much from here. That's why I only see upside to $55/60.
Although, the volatility is proven great for trading!