IceTrading
Long

Crude to the Moon

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
**************** Full Report Below Please Read******************
Over the last 30 years Crude oil             consumption has steadily increased worldwide. Each of the last 30 years has seen an average increase in consumption of 1.57%. Firstly it must be made clear that no matter the current state of oil             supply, it is a finite resource             . There is certainty that in the future, Oil             consumption will continue to grow while supply will continue to diminish. The result of this is increased value of Petroleum. Aside from the inevitable, two major assumptions must also be made when determining the future valuation of crude oil             .
The United States of America is well known for their intervention within OPEC nations. The first assumption that will be made is that the USA will remain militarily present in OPEC nations in order to secure their excessive oil             requirements. (USA consumes the most oil             in the world at a rate of 18.8 million barrels/day. The runner up is China at 9.7 million barrels/day.) Nearly all wars in recorded history have been fought over control of territory or the acquisition of resources. Inevitably, conflicts will arise due to their large military presence and political instability. War is expensive, destructive and disruptive. A few methods of funding war are to raise taxes, print money (inflation) or to go into debt. All of which weaken the economy of conflicting nations. The general correlation between the US Dollar             and crude is inversely proportional. As the US Dollar             depreciates in value, Crude appreciates and vice versa. One particular example of this is the Gulf War. In 1990 within a mere 3 months the price of Crude skyrocketed 140% from ~$17 a barrel to ~$40 a barrel as a result of the war. Therefore, any future conflicts in the Middle East will result in tremendous growth in the value of Crude. The greater the severity of conflict, the greater the increase in price.
The second assumption that will be made is that Scientists will not be able to find a crude oil             substitute and that technological advances in renewable or alternative energy will not outpace petroleum consumption. This is very likely for numerous reasons. In order to understand Crude oil’s future growth, one must understand it’s ubiquity within global commerce. Such a substitute, especially in plentiful quantities, is chemically impossible due to petroleum’s easily manipulable hydrocarbon structure. All plastics are synthetic polymers derived from oil             . Innumerable products contain or are composed of oil             . Current global agricultural practices are heavily dependent on insecticides, a product of petroleum. There are 800 million internal combustion vehicles on the planet. Airplanes, trains and cargo ships are also all dependent on the energy of fossil fuel. Alternative and renewable energy sources are currently, for lack of a better term, underwhelming. Even if alternative energies could somehow produce adequate electric power, enough to meet global needs, it is useless to every internal combustion vehicle, plane, train and cargo vessel. Crude oil             literally fuels global commerce.
In summary, Crude Oil             is a finite resource             being consumed at an exponentially growing rate. Future conflict is bound to arise in the Middle East due to the fact that Oil             is such a critical resource             . Chemically, there is no substitute for the malleability and diverse applications of Petroleum. Economically, Crude oil             is the backbone of global commerce.

Thank you for taking the time to read my Report. I strongly encourage you to leave your thoughts, comments and a like because I put a lot of effort into this. Thank you and Happy Trading!

Related Ideas

jangseohee
a year ago
Consolidation about to end!

snapshot

welldone
i like your channel ^_^
CL1!, dip buying
+2 Reply
IceTrading jangseohee
a year ago
Almost Identical Chart!
+1 Reply
jangseohee IceTrading
a year ago
long term channel seldom change much!! ^_^
+1 Reply
bracken
a year ago
I'm in your corner....literally
snapshot
+3 Reply
IceTrading bracken
a year ago
Nice TA. I like how you Identified all of the significant trendlines
+3 Reply
bracken IceTrading
a year ago
thank you :-)
+1 Reply
laurelweiner IceTrading
a year ago
me too
+1 Reply
stvnj PRO
a year ago
uh, well this is going to be dull trading for a while :(
+1 Reply
bracken stvnj
a year ago
I say you can buy now. Seriously. Look closely in my chart please.
@fib 0.5 and a cluster of three different possible significant supportlines. The bottom 1999 could have been an overshot. At least there ought to be a significant bounce around here
+1 Reply
Gweedy
a year ago
So.. Buy in 2017.. ? Thx.
+2 Reply
IceTrading Gweedy
a year ago
That should be a good entry.
+1 Reply
I am a firm believer that oil is going to reach its record high at sometime, so this post attracted me.

I have been watching oil since it's down fall last year. I am not good at technicals, so I try to stick with fundamental supply and demand. because of OPEC( mainly Saudi) decision last November, there is a lot of supply compared to demand.

My idea was to buy oil stocks in a long term view of 10 years, when the supply comes down. I held my nerves when oil bounced back to 60 in May, bcos I was watching supply it was still high, in fact US, Canada, Russia and middle east were pumping more. Thanks to my patience, as expected oil came down again.

Still watching supply mainly in USA, if it shows any signs of decline that's when I like to get in.

Wanted to know what you guys are planning to buy call options, big oil stocks or smaller ones. I have this struggle explained below, need your help

if options need to know a time line which no one knows. I believe in ATM call options when oil touches mid 30's. The reason is summer driving season is coming to an end and Iran is waiting to pump to add to the glut.

If oil stocks, big oil stocks are only 15% down on average when compared to a 50% decline in oil prices which tells me many investors are still holding a big chunk. Don't know the entry point. While low oil is going to be true for quite a while, I don't wanna be the prey for the hungry investors who are waiting to get out.

Need opinions on how how to play oil safely. What and when to buy on a conservative approach, max risk I can afford is 10%. I am looking at an investment of 15k usd for a time period of 10 years.

Thanks in advance and cheers.





+1 Reply
IceTrading MuthuManikandan
a year ago
I personally would wait at least another year until the Supply starts to drop. According to my TA and the TA of many others, Crude might not even begin to rally until 2018!
+2 Reply
MuthuManikandan IceTrading
a year ago
Thanks ice. Any suggestion on what to buy.
+1 Reply
IceTrading MuthuManikandan
a year ago
Unfortunately that is not an area I can help you with. Trading view is based predominantly on technical Analysis. At this point all the advice I have for you is to remain vigilant. Ask around, try posting in other websites and forums. Keep an eye on global news, do more research and above all, be patient. Good Luck.
+1 Reply
laurelweiner IceTrading
a year ago
agree
+1 Reply
FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Very interesting and logical, commodities prices can not decline near ZERO, so this one and the silver are going to rally very soon....
+2 Reply
FX_CLEVER
a year ago
Very Informative!!
+1 Reply
IceTrading FX_CLEVER
a year ago
I appreciate that, thank you
+1 Reply
meganjack
a year ago
EURUSD
Reply
I dont look for alot of change in oil until there is a change in world central bank policy. Still in a deflationary spiral but I do agree with your thesis
+2 Reply
moneymaking
a year ago
Hey IceTrading, very detailed analysis. Great work. All the BEST :)
+1 Reply
IceTrading moneymaking
a year ago
Thank you very much
Reply
starlord369
a year ago
Ice man your chart looks almost magical. I like the perspective. Although I still have some puts out there in oil land. I think we are close to a bottom but until supply drops which I think will happen before we see demand pick up im short oil. Chomping at the bit to go long.
+1 Reply
TLTrader
a year ago
Not sure why you are not taking into account the rise of alternate energy, especially solar, as an competitive resource going forward. Even Saudi Arabia is constructing massive solar farms! Everyone wants to breathe unpolluted air!
+1 Reply
IceTrading TLTrader
a year ago
In my full report I specified that even if alternative energies could somehow meet global electricity demand, electric energy is of no use to all of the internal combustion vehicles, planes, trains and cargo ships that currently drive (no pun intended) global commerce.
+2 Reply
This target matches mine.

Crude oil (WTI): Get ready for a meltdown
+1 Reply
IceTrading IvanLabrie
a year ago
Glad to see our targets match. Thanks for sharing.
Reply
Hi Ice,

Interesting analysis. Let us wait for this happening .I like to know your view in Gold futures analysis. FYI i am long in GOLD.
+1 Reply
IceTrading venkatachalamsri
9 days ago
@venkatachalamsri, I have posted a chart on Gold some time back if you go into my published charts you will find it. I am also long gold!
Reply
Killy_Mel
a year ago
great analysis, but this chart does not consider dollar inflation... since its long term

if the dollars were rebased to now value according to CPI, the picture would have been much FLATTER
+1 Reply
Killy_Mel Killy_Mel
a year ago
*to current value
Reply
immawin
a year ago
that makes lotta sense :D
+1 Reply
bracken
a year ago
Monthly imported oilprice since 1974, nominal and inflation adjusted:

http://www.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2486306/original.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/13/crude-oil-price-chart_n_6463054.html&h=582&w=1131&tbnid=aZ4p3M-AN3i5uM:&docid=CcQbsydYg323UM&ei=q5XaVYOdOoG0sQG54Z-oDQ&tbm=isch&ved=0CFMQMygqMCpqFQoTCMOevLLpwMcCFQFaLAodufAH1Q
snapshot
+2 Reply
jangseohee bracken
a year ago
@bracken what your chart says worry me a lot ^_^
CL1!, drop to channel bottom?
Reply
AMBRISH
a year ago
INTERESTING ANALYSIS ON CRUDE. AS PER CHART CRUDE IS FORMING BOTTOM FOR NEXT MOVE.
Reply
nice
+1 Reply
IceTrading BillMsietesting
9 days ago
@BillMsietesting, Thank you!
Reply
timwest PRO
a year ago
http://labs.timogrossenbacher.ch/worldoil/ I googled "global oil consumption graph" and found this website and noticed that there are times when oil demand is flat over many years, but you make a strong point that oil demand increases steadily over time at a 1.57% rate. I am a believer of Say's Law from economics that a market that becomes "oversupplied" ends up "overdemanded", which is to say that people waste when the price gets low and people conserve when the price gets high. Say's Law helps your position too, since we will see a large increase in the purchases of pickup trucks that are fuel-inefficient (demand increases because of low prices of oil). Supply reductions are balanced also by the fact that the world is terrified of having the Middle East control the price of oil and will do everything possible to up-end reliance on Middle East supplies, however ridiculous that may sound. What we are seeing now is the purposeful destruction of the price of oil to disrupt new long term supplies of oil that were born from the high prices, especially from the spike up near $150 in 2008. The peak of the US Housing Market was 2006, but perhaps the acceleration down in prices was in 2008. Good fortune to us all and thank you for your post.
+1 Reply
Stockman
a year ago
yeah o.k. there
Reply
T-1000
a year ago
Cant say I see a long trajectory for crude. We are moving away from old energy into more renewable sources. There's a big push for renewables and we are making huge leaps in new energy technology, especially solar. Mass adoption of electric / electro-hybrid cars is in the horizon.
+1 Reply
IceTrading T-1000
9 days ago
@T-1000, In my full report I specified that even if alternative energies could somehow meet global electricity demand, electric energy is of no use to all of the planes, trains and cargo ships that currently drive global commerce. A spike in crude prices will cause consumers and producers to look for cheaper alternatives and drive the transition from fossil fuels to renewables.
Reply
jasiel882
a year ago
YOU REALLY EXPLAINED IT IN PERFECT DETAIL, I LOVED IT, BY THE WAY HOW MANY YEARS HAVE YOU BEEN IN THE MARKETS?
+1 Reply
IceTrading jasiel882
9 days ago
@jasiel882, Three Years. Thank you very much.
Reply
jasiel882
a year ago
good job man i really enjoyed reading every bit of your summary :) ...... by the way the graph is superb thanks for the info
+1 Reply
IceTrading jasiel882
9 days ago
@jasiel882, I appreciate that. Glad you enjoyed it!
Reply
asdq311
11 months ago
wow good
+1 Reply
IceTrading asdq311
9 days ago
@asdq311, Thank you!
Reply
asdq311
11 months ago
wow good
Reply
Fanatik_
10 months ago
rip
Reply
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