@venik88, The trend line matters some, but not a lot. I am not using technical analysis. I using Institutional Supply and Demand for my trading. The trend line just adds some probability to the equation. However, I do agree, it is a little off. Please accept my apologizes! I think we will bounce around some at $61.15 - $60.83 (daily demand zone), then hit supply on the daily and break the bottom trend line. At which point bottom will depend on DXY, ES and HG.
@venik88, CL and HG are my early recession indicators. My view on HG is this: Think about everything that has copper... Cellphones, electronics, electric motors, construction etc... List goes on and on. So, if HG is really negitive it's a high probability it will drag CL and ES with it. Just my view of the world. You're welcome to disagree with. If so, I would love to hear your thoughts.
I think that the most correlated commodity with recessions is oil. When oil is high, nothing can be shipped cheaply, and at the same time it means there is demand for expensive shipping - an indicator of a healthy economy. I also think that when oil is low it means that economic demand is low - but it also signals for cheap energy prices which help the economy in the future.
So high energy prices = high demand, expect slowdown
low energy prices = low demand, expect economic acceleration.
rxtrading
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@venik88, I agree with your thesis on oil. I also, consider it the life blood of the economy. Most of the widgets that are being shipped are made of copper to some extent. I am not arguing that one is more important than the other. I am just simply stating they both enter into the equation, thus both should be watched closely.