Two times, crude failed to reach the centerline.
In Allen Andrews writings i remember a sentence, that if price fails two times to reach the centerline, it's most often a sign of more strength in the original direction.
With the new blue fork, we see the following:
- price failed to reach it's centerline.
- price came back and respected the L-MLH, where in the second attempt it broke it followed by
1) Breakout of the L-MLH
2) Test of the L-MLH
...which so far is textbook like.
We can even take into consideration the 0-5 count from the b point of the blue fork.
if so, we would be at P4, followed by the last an final move down to P5.
The short scenario i show in the chart is just one simple way to play it.
Maybe a RiskReversal would also come in to consideration, or a plain BearCallSpread.
Maybe with this up-shoot, little more then i thought, we have a potential shift to the right, which means, our PTG is probably not the centerline anymore, but the equal shift to the right. Courious if price will close in the fork or outside...