NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
On the long term the price is in an uptrend channel ,but has been unable to get to the upper line of the channel. More over and as seen in the short term ( uptrend channel red dotted lines), the price reached a oversold condition where was unable to keep going higher (under the two red arrows), furthermore was able to pass through the 105 support zone , with a relatively strong down bar (July 02).

At this moment the price is getting into a zone of confluence of the long and short term of the channels where is expected that the price retrace to test the resistance zone at 105, in this scenario we may expect some bearish action above the resistance zone in order to get short waiting for a down movement until the previous significant low.

But if the price dont retrace to the resistance then could fall until the previous support (significant low) at 101.50 zone, but in this case we would not take a short position because there is not a good risk reward ratio.


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