alsals
Short

CL1! new low

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
35 0 0
So oil             has pushed past the last lowest of 43.75 in Jan 29 to today's 42.57.
This is significant in technical analysis because psychologically the bottom has broken and its anyone's guess what the next new low will be,
the next bottom is 33.77 on 2009-2-06, which is a long way from 43.75

But another key thing to look at is USDEUR            

USD picked up about the same time as oil             starts falling.

the idea is this:
with cheaper oil             , things happen:
lower cost for production
lower profits for oil             related industries
surplus fund / reserves from cheaper logistics need to be diverted
US economy is picking up. USD is kept in order to pay for US exports

probably these funds when towards buying USD and US stocks , and at the same time dumping Euro             , hence the rise in USD.

The timing is too tight to be a coincidence.
Hence USD would be a good counter gauge on the direction of oil             prices.

Why is oil             still falling ?
1. supply is maintained by demand is falling.
most storage is already full and less buyers are able to buy more oil             to keep until price increase.
2. winter is coming to an end.
less demand for fuel to run heaters


i forgot to add that oil             is now tracking the lower or a widening bollinger band , and RSI is approaching 30 and over sell
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