Shortterm view: Oil reached an action point @ 44,5. For me it really looks bearish..the only thing that makes me thinking of is the oversold RSI..because of the oversold situation i have illustrated the alternative way of my view (orange arrow). Prices below 44,5 are bearish - the tp copuld be 43$
Comments are welcome - agree or disagree !
Former analysis:
CAN THIS BE TRUE? DEZ 2016: 75$ ???
What do my tired eyes see?? Isn`t it a big bottom pattern in form of an exemplary H&S?
The RSI signs, that there is still a bit air on the downside. A dip back to the 38,2 fibo @ 41,92$ would be great. A dip to the 0,5 fibo normal and a dip to the 61,8 maximal.
If this level would be bought, a H&S is being formed. Prices above the neckline could interpreted as a BIG LONG SIGNAL.
I have illustrated the possible TPs in my chart
microstructure
WEDGE TRIGGERED...AND NOW?
SInce the bearish wegde was activated, the momentum indeed turned bearish . Oil seems to aim for kissing the EMA 200 @ 44$.
This level is corresponding to the current down trend channel`s bottom. Here could be a potentially turnaround level!
Targets on the downside are as always theblue illustrated fibos.
On the way down, the level @ 45,7$ also could be an interesting entrypoint for longs --> triple bottom?
Prices above 50.3 are bullish , prices above 52,5 strong bullish
LAST CONSOLIDATION BEFORE WE SEE THE 50$?
HERE IS THE EXSPECTED DEAD CAT BOUNCE
My former Analysis was nearly perfect! WTI exploded and is traded above its former breakoutlevel @ 44$. The fast upmove ended at the 0,5 fibo @ 49,55$ - the normal correction Level. If WTI is falling back below 44$, i exspect a dip of the former low @ 37,7. Prices below this low will generate a new downwave with TP 32$.
On the upside we see the longterm downtrends upper edge @ 51$ (falling) as a STRONG RESIST.
The rainbow concept does not yet signalize a Turnaround Situation. The RSI is not yet overbought, so WTI could perhaps overshoot a bit higher.
Former Analysis
Is it time for a Dead Cat Bounce?
Is it perhaps time for a Little Rebound? The RSI signs, that the market is very oversold and it seems that the indicator will turn into the buyingzone > 30, the likelihood of a Rebound increases. If Oil could brake it s downtrend @ 40,25$, a Rebound to the former breakoutlevel @ 44$ is thinkable. But as Long as Oil is trading below this (yellow) trendline it will make new Lows. Below the green Support line, the downtrend momentum will tighten, a further "selloff" could be exspected!
Only Prices above the old breakout Level @ 44$ could turn the Chart bullish , but thats just good for a short/midterm view. The longterm view is still deep bearish! Prices above 44$ will open the possibility that Oil jumps to his Minimum/normal-/maximal correction fibo-retracements at 0,38: 46,8 / 0,5:049,63/ 0,618: 52,44
Comments are welcome - agree or disagree !
Former analysis:
CAN THIS BE TRUE? DEZ 2016: 75$ ???
What do my tired eyes see?? Isn`t it a big bottom pattern in form of an exemplary H&S?
The RSI signs, that there is still a bit air on the downside. A dip back to the 38,2 fibo @ 41,92$ would be great. A dip to the 0,5 fibo normal and a dip to the 61,8 maximal.
If this level would be bought, a H&S is being formed. Prices above the neckline could interpreted as a BIG LONG SIGNAL.
I have illustrated the possible TPs in my chart
microstructure
WEDGE TRIGGERED...AND NOW?
This level is corresponding to the current down trend channel`s bottom. Here could be a potentially turnaround level!
Targets on the downside are as always theblue illustrated fibos.
On the way down, the level @ 45,7$ also could be an interesting entrypoint for longs --> triple bottom?
Prices above 50.3 are bullish , prices above 52,5 strong bullish
LAST CONSOLIDATION BEFORE WE SEE THE 50$?
HERE IS THE EXSPECTED DEAD CAT BOUNCE
My former Analysis was nearly perfect! WTI exploded and is traded above its former breakoutlevel @ 44$. The fast upmove ended at the 0,5 fibo @ 49,55$ - the normal correction Level. If WTI is falling back below 44$, i exspect a dip of the former low @ 37,7. Prices below this low will generate a new downwave with TP 32$.
On the upside we see the longterm downtrends upper edge @ 51$ (falling) as a STRONG RESIST.
The rainbow concept does not yet signalize a Turnaround Situation. The RSI is not yet overbought, so WTI could perhaps overshoot a bit higher.
Former Analysis
Is it time for a Dead Cat Bounce?
Only Prices above the old breakout Level @ 44$ could turn the Chart bullish , but thats just good for a short/midterm view. The longterm view is still deep bearish! Prices above 44$ will open the possibility that Oil jumps to his Minimum/normal-/maximal correction fibo-retracements at 0,38: 46,8 / 0,5:049,63/ 0,618: 52,44
Comment:
aha aha aha...
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again reached an Action/desicion Point
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isn`t that nice? i love TA!!!
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Reached TP..isn`t that nice? -)
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has the time come for a little rebound? ...have a look at the RSI!!!
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42 $ could be the next shortterm/midterm turnaround level if you watch the 1h chart
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next downwave ahed?
Trade closed: target reached