Oil broke below the range it's been inside of for the past year and I'm expecting it to fall lower to the ~45.50 demand. There is decent supply on the daily where I will be going short. I'm expecting price to fall from 54-53 down to 48. We could have some trouble falling below 51, but overall I expect prices to break through. I will use a 1:1 target to eliminate risk and a manual trailing stop to manage the trade on the way down.
Entry: 53.27
Stop: 53.57 (Risk: $300/contract)
T1: 52.97 (Used to eliminate risk)
T2: 48.00 (Profit: $5270/contract)
Entry: 54.13
Stop 54.43 (Risk: $300/contract)
T1: 53.85 (Used to eliminate risk)
T2: 48.00 (Profit: $6130/contract)
Entry: 53.27
Stop: 53.57 (Risk: $300/contract)
T1: 52.97 (Used to eliminate risk)
T2: 48.00 (Profit: $5270/contract)
Entry: 54.13
Stop 54.43 (Risk: $300/contract)
T1: 53.85 (Used to eliminate risk)
T2: 48.00 (Profit: $6130/contract)
Trade active:
First entry hit. 1:1 hit. Currently in zero risk trade. Will see if price moves to the downside and wait for supply to form before moving stop.
Trade closed: stop reached:
First entry stopped out. Awaiting second entry.
Trade closed manually:
Second entry was just shy of reaching the limit order before turning to the downside and hitting the 1:1. If this happens in the future I need to close the trade or remove half the position size so my risk isn't doubled. In hindsight, this trade overall did not fit my rules for curve, structure, instant retests, or flips.
