smitheric1970
Short

Oil - Still Seeking a Bottom?

NYMEX:CLK2017   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
My 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?' chart is active and still waiting on prices to reach its second target price but for those of you looking for a new entry or to add positions; I have closed out my front month J short contracts and will open/sell short K (May) futures contracts on Sunday/Monday; Prices are currently sandwiched between 2 daily demand exchanges and I am expecting a breakdown in the coming days; I'd hoped that my target would have been achieved this week so that I wouldn't have any front/back month chart confusion but no such luck... Perhaps Yellens tone was dovish enough to excite the DX             bears but I think the DX             will be in a 98-103 range for a greater part of this year and/or perhaps the managed money were not ready for there lower strikes to get hit yet... Nonetheless my short outlook has not wavered. If prices see a daily close below the 48.91 daily inflection then I believe we'll see a breakdown to the two weekly Demand levels at 47.02 and 46.22. I am recommending taking half profits at 47.05 and closing all short positions at 46.22.

Entry: K(May) Contract
Sell/Short 48.91-49.39
Stop Loss 50.21
Target Price: 46.22
Close Half Positions at 47.05

Good trading all!

For a view of my long entry chart (not yet active) which currently shows weekly supply levels (and where we saw 49.6 rejection yesterday) please see the chart below:


Trade active
Comment: 3/21 Update: Prices had a significant breakdown today below the 49.81 inflection; no changes to my outlook, target remains the same and I am still advising to close half positions at 47.05.

Good trading all!
Comment: Closed half positions at 47.05
Comment: Well prices did indeed get a bounce at the 47.05 level; unfortunately a much stronger bounce than I'd anticipated; My outlook has not changed but with such a bullish daily candle after today's close, I typically expect to see a further rise in price to balance out the reversal prior to further breakdown. As you can see on this chart, prices have so far created two demand levels following the drop. If prices rally further I will expect the next high daily inflection to act as resistance; so am looking for selling between 48.6 and 48.9.



Good trading all!
Comment: 3/23 Update: I am happy to see that yesterday's daily candle, which looked fiercely bullish, did not have any followthrough today; Closing below the lower Daily inflection of 48.15 is significant to me suggesting that we see further downside; as well prices closed below the 3/14 candle low, and no long wicks today.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/D7hnRzjb/

On the original chart above you can see that we have two lower weekly inflections, one at 47.02 and one at 46.22; we saw quite a bounce at the 47.02 level and although I am just not sure there is a catalyst to drop prices further tomorrow other than next week being monthly close, it would be very meaningful to me if the weekly candle closed below 47.02 on the K (May) chart, suggesting that prices will target the next inflection down so lets hope for further downside tomorrow.

My outlook remains the same, still targeting my bottom target price and for this trade will be closing short positions at 46.22.

Good trading all!
Comment: My apologies the link the last update was incorrect; it is a monthly view that I will discuss next week; here is the chart I intended to show, a refreshed view of yesterday's daily chart.

Comment: 3/24 Update: Essentially no changes to yesterdays update or to my initial outlook, prices once again tested but closed below the 48.15 daily inflection. On a rally I am still expecting selling below the 48.91 daily/weekly inflection, overall daily chart is still bearish showing lower daily highs and lows. OPEC is meeting this weekend and next week is monthly close; potential volatility on next weeks open.



Good trading and have a fabulous weekend!
Trade closed: stop reached: Hey all, fundamentals following reports this week pushed prices up further than I'd expected, hopefully you were able to capitalize on half profits at 47.05 and if your initial SL was not lowered then the original entry SL was hit today; good profits but not the finish I'd hoped for. Will reassess and look for a new entry.

Good trading all!
Thanks for the trade advice smitheric. Looking forward to your future posts.
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you trade like superman :) super call for 47,05... congrats!!!
+1 Reply
smitheric1970 NesakysiuVardo
@NesakysiuVardo, Thanks!
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NesakysiuVardo smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, did you re-add short positions?
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smitheric1970 NesakysiuVardo
@NesakysiuVardo, I did based on my other chart, and definitely too soon; those stagger levels were geared more for the Oil Meltdown chart as more of a buffer has been built in for risking those stager moves; though I did not expect such a high volume bounce at the 47.05 level; at this point I still have the same bottom target and will look at the 48.91 demand level as resistance.
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