WTI June Oil CLM7 Short/Neutral
Hello Supporters and Viewers,
Here is new month Oil chart.
Currently there is an "in-neck" bar forming which suggests further downside.
Indicators are also suggesting more downside, as is the bulk of TV opinion.
Looking at the main players, this view may be borne out.
Call volumes are sitting 55-57 with a weekly change of +13k.
Put volumes are at 50-52 with a weekly change of 33k.
These will expire circa May 17.
Futures volume is rising +300k OI with MM at net 277k long basis April 11 and Commercials net 244k short.
Contrary to other TV opinion, I do not believe recent geopolitical events have had much impact on Oil.
Syria does not produce much, and China, Korea and Japan are all importers. Oil needs supply interruption (OPEC) to start moving around, so nothing much to see here.
If I was short, then I would look at sub 52 to 51.50 over the next 2 weeks and see if this pattern develops into a flag/triangle.
... just my 2c worth
.
Here is new month Oil chart.
Currently there is an "in-neck" bar forming which suggests further downside.
Indicators are also suggesting more downside, as is the bulk of TV opinion.
Looking at the main players, this view may be borne out.
Call volumes are sitting 55-57 with a weekly change of +13k.
Put volumes are at 50-52 with a weekly change of 33k.
These will expire circa May 17.
Futures volume is rising +300k OI with MM at net 277k long basis April 11 and Commercials net 244k short.
Contrary to other TV opinion, I do not believe recent geopolitical events have had much impact on Oil.
Syria does not produce much, and China, Korea and Japan are all importers. Oil needs supply interruption (OPEC) to start moving around, so nothing much to see here.
If I was short, then I would look at sub 52 to 51.50 over the next 2 weeks and see if this pattern develops into a flag/triangle.
... just my 2c worth
.
Comment:
Ok ... so that question was a bit hard.
Here is some more factual data to add to our chart to see where it is going.
A further 22k futures contracts came off May and 26k were added to June taking OI to 636k.
There are 59k open strike calls @60 and 55k @55 - most of these were opened yesterday.
There are 73k sitting between @50-@53 and a grand total of 543k with 15k added last nite.
There is a total of 436k puts of which 178k (41%) sitting @53-@48.
26% of Puts are ITM vs 14%.
Yesterday's bar eventuated as an indecisive doji evidenced by an upper and lower pin, but closed lower.
Today's bar is similar but holding $50.50 So I think this our current minor support area.
We are at the bottom of a BB range, which suggests further short term upside (retracement perhaps) while this pattern unfolds. Those aggressive calls are interesting.
So long at spot 67, Stop 15 below our support (say 37) and TP 5x(Spot-Stop) or 5x30 = 150 + 67 = 52.20 for RR 5:1
Possible? There is 300 pts on the Down move so 50% = 150+ 50.70 := 52.20
So that's my answer (... only got 1 x long button on my keyboard) so Good Trading to me
... just my 2c worth
Here is some more factual data to add to our chart to see where it is going.
A further 22k futures contracts came off May and 26k were added to June taking OI to 636k.
There are 59k open strike calls @60 and 55k @55 - most of these were opened yesterday.
There are 73k sitting between @50-@53 and a grand total of 543k with 15k added last nite.
There is a total of 436k puts of which 178k (41%) sitting @53-@48.
26% of Puts are ITM vs 14%.
Yesterday's bar eventuated as an indecisive doji evidenced by an upper and lower pin, but closed lower.
Today's bar is similar but holding $50.50 So I think this our current minor support area.
We are at the bottom of a BB range, which suggests further short term upside (retracement perhaps) while this pattern unfolds. Those aggressive calls are interesting.
So long at spot 67, Stop 15 below our support (say 37) and TP 5x(Spot-Stop) or 5x30 = 150 + 67 = 52.20 for RR 5:1
Possible? There is 300 pts on the Down move so 50% = 150+ 50.70 := 52.20
So that's my answer (... only got 1 x long button on my keyboard) so Good Trading to me
... just my 2c worth
New Month Oil (June): Just a quick update on transactions of the last few days.
Ok, so what happened?
Well OI on K (April 19 prelim) is just 26k Futures (down from 586k and 482k reported in previous posts). These will be settled.
Where did they go?
Onto M up from 225k (Apr 17) 463k (18) and 824k (19) (trade volumes), while price moved 53.20 to 52.76 to 51.00. OI on M is up to 625k.
K closed $50.78 and M gap opened at $51.10
Where to from here?
More puts were opened last nite and calls closed. So smart money believes down.
I am not that smart, so I will follow them. The main strikes are $50-$52 and these will expire May 17 - only 23 TD's away. The calls now appear "too" OTM.
We have support just under $50 and $48 mid.
So these appear to be the obvious targets.
Above us we have Resistance at 51.50 and 52
So ... what would you do?
... just my 2c worth