I apologize for the messy chart; I'd prefer to publish a cleaner view but have a busy weekend so you'll get a glimpse inside my crazy charting mind with all of my notes... So, just zoom in to the TP area of the charity you're not interested in the rest!
A couple of weeks ago I'd anticipated prices staying contained in the 45.6-50.4 daily trading range but last week pressed just above that level without any hints of selling; so I now anticipate that prices will see buying up to solidify 50.4 support through this weeks OPEC meeting; but... anticipate a cap on prices and likely decline with FOMC only a few weeks away and the USD will likely see strength. I'd imagine the fast few weeks volatility will continue for the next few weeks.
As always, I advise taking partial profits at the first TP.
Good trading all!
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Looks like the trade will continue up as expected but unfortunately I did not get the pullback that I wanted. 10 cents shy of the entry point. Unless tomorrow's EIA is a build that pressures prices back down, this trade will most likely be cancelled on a daily close above 51.60; we'll know tomorrow. But... a miss is not a loss and we have these trade setups every week.
Tune in tomorrow...
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Well prices have not entered the Long entry zone or closed on a daily above 51.60, so... we are still in wait mode. Here I've taken the upper demand line, upper part of the Long entry and two upper target areas and added the 8 and 9 Daily moving averages, which now are lined up with the entry zone (just wanted to give a clean view heading into tomorrow). It would surprise me to see that drop into the entry zone at this point; but, with a drop following the EIA report; it is possible that volatility heading into OPEC tomorrow could give me the entry. I'd rather miss than chase; so have chosen to remain patient. Again, this is the same as the chart above, with the 8 and 9 daily MA added.
Wow, the long entry zone has indeed been reached! Not chasing prices and waiting for the entry zone; may have paid off. Following news of deeper cuts potentially being reduced by SA, we just saw a flash selloff. I am now locked and loaded in my long entry. Lets hope that prices remain above those 8 and 9 day Moving averages.
What an ugly turn of events after a hopeful entry; unfortunately lived and died by the stop loss! That is always painful! Well, time to take a breather, shake off the pain and will re-assess and see what next week brings.
@smitheric1970, Hi ! What is your thoughts about OPEC meetings and further oil plans ?
smitheric1970
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@iqs, Well I am assuming that OPEC will elevate prices through and possibly after the meeting; would guess possibly 52.4-53.6?; FOMC rate hike decision is mid June, I'd have to assume that is baked into prices but would still anticipate prices being pressured as we get closer to it. This chart is still my active view unless daily prices close above 51.60 without the entry being reached, in which case I will cancel this trade. If that happens I will most likely wait and reassess over the weekend and give you an update on my thoughts.
You've been more precient than most. A new day starts every minute!