timwest
Long

Crude Oil -CLZ2014 -Daily -Gann Swing Still Short but....

NYMEX:CLZ2014   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
625 27 9
It closed over the resistance line... if prices can close up here it will set up fireworks to the upside.

Notice all of the Purple Boxes I have labeled in the decline. Those are range expansion and volume expansion bars (with one that is only price expansion) to the downside. They represent strong selling and are great "setups" for entries on the short side.

Notice that the last purple box was violated. Now that last one wasn't a big one and the close of the day was above the mid-point, which shows that sellers completed early, but it is a sign that the sellers are no longer in control. The buyers haven't stepped up to the plate yet, but when or if they do and if they find they don't run into a wall of sell orders, the floodgates of a rally will open up. It may just take the beginning of a new month to get portfolio managers to bite and allocate to crude oil             down here. Most likely PM's don't want to show owning this on the month-end report when it has been such a big loss for the month.

So, my forecast goes along the following lines. Buy here and risk to the bottom of that last purple box. Look to buy over the previous day's highs for the first three days of November. Upside 1, 2, 3, 4 from entry. I hope you can split your entry over 4 prices/pieces.

Tim 9:16AM 10/30/2014 "Mischief Night" in America, before Halloween Friday 10/31/2014 816.2 last
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It did stop out the short and go long at the close on Friday...
snapshot
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Tim, what target do you see?
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timwest PRO alexeyhoroshunvk
I will be monitoring step by step. Once we get over a previous day's high, the upside could be sharp and swift. You can see the momentum of the sellers (the highs of the purple boxes) is diminishing...
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Crude is going for the Gold.... that is ... breaking support and heading lower....
+1 Reply
Amazing, stop and reverse huh? Very nice setup, either way.
+1 Reply
elcololp timwest
Tim, do you think there's not a good time to buy oil stocks?
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timwest PRO elcololp
I think this is a great time to get your shopping list together. I'm buying Royal Dutch with a 5%+ yield. I'm looking for the oil companies with the best financial condition to weather low oil prices. I imagine oil trading in the range of 75-85 for the next 6-12 months. So, with that in mind, you could sell puts against cash to buy oil stocks at these prices. Then, once you buy them (from being put them from exercise), then turn around and sell calls against them for 6-9 months.
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2use timwest
Nice strategy!
+1 Reply
15%-20% return a year strategy, including dividends. Very stable. Beta of 0.3 instead of Beta of 1.5 to earn that return.
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Amazing :D Taking notes for when I get a capital worth sniffing at.
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