Notice all of the Purple Boxes I have labeled in the decline. Those are range expansion and expansion bars (with one that is only price expansion) to the downside. They represent strong selling and are great "setups" for entries on the short side.
Notice that the last purple box was violated. Now that last one wasn't a big one and the close of the day was above the mid-point, which shows that sellers completed early, but it is a sign that the sellers are no longer in control. The buyers haven't stepped up to the plate yet, but when or if they do and if they find they don't run into a wall of sell orders, the floodgates of a rally will open up. It may just take the beginning of a new month to get portfolio managers to bite and allocate to crude oil down here. Most likely PM's don't want to show owning this on the month-end report when it has been such a big loss for the month.
So, my forecast goes along the following lines. Buy here and risk to the bottom of that last purple box. Look to buy over the previous day's highs for the first three days of November. Upside 1, 2, 3, 4 from entry. I hope you can split your entry over 4 prices/pieces.
Tim 9:16AM 10/30/2014 "Mischief Night" in America, before Halloween Friday 10/31/2014 816 .2 last
bullish activity in Exxon Mobil and Chevron as investors look for upside during the next seven weeks. XOM hit first, with more than 12,000 December 100 calls bought for $0.48. Minutes later, some 11,600 CVX December 125 calls were purchased for $0.52. Volume was more than twice the previous open interest in each strike.
These long calls lock in the price where investors can get long, ensuring they won't miss a rally. Their relatively cheap cost helps manage risk and can result in significant leverage on a percentage basis if shares move in the right direction