The last time I wrote about Crude Oil on tradingview.com in October 2018 I suggested that $70 oil was a"Busted Pattern,in my reading of the chart, with very bearish implications, as it appeared big money longs had been trapped above $70 barrel.
Today Crude Oil is breaking $60 a barrel, on oversupply /political concerns, Since 10/3/18 High of 76.90, price has fallen 24 %, clearly defined as a Bear Market.
Price looks to be headed towards $58 MAJOR PATTERN SUPPORT, where for oil needs to hold or else....
Believing,, that this decline is one of the few gifts the market will give you, using $58 STOP on Dec.18' Crude CLZ I am advising you begin to accumulate Crude Oil and Energy plays across the board at these levels. Contrary opinion has it's roots in trades like these. It takes guts to go against the crowd.
By 2019, you could be handsomely rewarded for taking a position in ENERGY right now !
I will update this post, as needed, in case the decline in OIL, goes into a full downward spike capitulation.
THE_UNWIND 11/9/18 730 AM NEW YORK
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Crude Oil plunged thru Major Chart Support at $58.00 A Barrel STOP settling at 55.13 for Dec 2018 Crude. down over 6 % on 11/13/18.
Bulls were simply overwhelmed by massive selling pressure, ie VOLUME which was triggered by the breach of MAJOR Support at $58.00
I had indicated that a capitulation spike to the downside was possible, in the post above, and now that is exactly what is occurring.
Due to the unrelenting price decline, from bull market to bear market in just 6 weeks, obviously something else is going on.
I would stay away from the long side Crude Oil, and energy related stocks/ETFS at this point in the capitulation cycle, until such time that a MEANINGFUL Bottom ,.is in place.
Thanks for insight, following. I'm new to traditional markets but have been mainly shorting OIL so far. Do you suggest putting in a long order in at 58 with a tight stop loss or waiting to see what it does? Also, what other energy tickers would you recommend to look at. Trying to diversify from crypto currency and would really appreciate any insight, thanks!
I do not trade crude, as a commodity, but the Daily Continuous Futures chart on crude that I keep does show MAJOR Support at 58.
Rather I use 2 very liquid, and very volatile ETFS ( fair warning)
that I would recommend to you, on either side of the oil trade.
UCO Pro Shares Ultra OIL ETF for LONG Position. Tracks Crude Oil Futures amazingly well.
DRIP Direxion's Triple Bear Oil and Natural Gas ETF for SHORT position.
With DRIP you also get the added benefit,
of stock market decline built in, and DRIP is also very predictive, as sometimes it rises further than expected so you can use it for divergence,
telling you the following day could witness a continuation of the move.
One thing to note.Once a week, On Tuesdays at 430 om EST, and more so on Wed.1030 am EST, Crude OIL inventory figures are Released to the marketplace,
and both these ETFS can be highly volatile after the release.