Chipotle Mexican Grill | CMG | Long at $30.56

Nov 9, 2025

Chipotle CMG stock has dropped dramatically since 2024, but the company has been *highly* overvalued for many, many years (69x p/e in June last year). As of Friday, November 7, 2025, the stock price entered my "crash" simple moving average zone (green lines). I do not suspect this is truly bottom, though. The company's growth is likely to slow into 2026 as people continue to spend less, and the stock finally starts to enter a reasonable p/e value (currently 27x). I anticipate further entry possibilities near $25 in the short-term if the economy continues to show more and more weakness. Entry into the "major crash" simple moving average zone, or gray lines, near $20-$24 isn't out of the question either. Thus, a personal entry at $30.56 is simply a starter position.

Growth

1. Earnings per share anticipated to rise from $1.60 in 2025 to $1.82 by 2028.
   
2. Revenue expected to rise during that time from $11.9 billion to $16.6 billion.
   
3. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-CMG/financials-earnings/?earnings-period=FY&revenues-period=FY

Health

• Extremely healthy, financially
  
• Altman's Z Score / Bankruptcy risk: 7.5 (very low risk)
  
• Quick Ratio: 1.5 (low debt)
  

Action

• While there is risk of continued near-term pain for CMG , the longer outlook is reassuring if true. Thus, at $30.56, Chiptole is in a personal buy zone (starter position) with risk of a continued drop to $25 or, "major crash" territory in the low $20s. These will be other personal entry points.
  

Targets into 2028

1. $35.00 (+14.5%)
   
2. $39.00 (+27.6%)
   

Dec 2, 2025

Trade active

Target #1 reached resulting in a 14.5% gain.

Jan 6

Trade closed: target reached

Target #2 reached resulting in a +27.6% gain. Trade closed.