CMG - A top that may offer a short via put spreads?
"Swing trader" has about 10 different indicators - but I like watching the genie Cycles with a Volume confirmation. Additionally, I have found you need to review the 1, 2, 4-hour cycles, and the daily cycles to research which indicator works best for timing particular stocks. This overpriced stinker I acknowledge appears to be continuing its mind-blowing uptrend. How a stock this overvalued only has 6% short interest is beyond me, also - but for the reasons below. I am not declaring a top, but rather the decent potential for a MINIMUM 20 point tradeoff recent highs:
THIS chart (top area) shows a 4-hour cycle (2 plots daily) with the S&P in orange to see how the stock trades with (or not) the overall mkt. Overall - high correlation.
I have been wrong on CMG in the past (though I traded more on traditional technicals then) and I think CMG is and has been manipulated like CRAZY in the past - which the surprisingly small 6% short interest (smart money) may be confirming. I simply cannot comprehend CMG's valuation - using ANY metrics! This chart's sell signal using metrics that are not mine has led to my taking short positions on CMG again.
Do your own homework because CMG has fooled and hurt many of us in the past --BUT the chart here indicates a sell on a 4-hour cycle and looking at past cycles it could extend for several days - more if we are lucky.
I suggest vertical put spreads in the AUG 30 and Sept 6 series - and I took a flier with a handful of straight puts further out of the money. I'll leave the specific trade to those of you who have your own styles but think we could get AT LEAST another 20 points down to below 800 - and easily lower IF we get some help from overall market direction.
A nominal sell-off in the next few days could help hedge fund money go short - though they have always traded as though they know something we don't!
Ideas welcome.
THIS chart (top area) shows a 4-hour cycle (2 plots daily) with the S&P in orange to see how the stock trades with (or not) the overall mkt. Overall - high correlation.
I have been wrong on CMG in the past (though I traded more on traditional technicals then) and I think CMG is and has been manipulated like CRAZY in the past - which the surprisingly small 6% short interest (smart money) may be confirming. I simply cannot comprehend CMG's valuation - using ANY metrics! This chart's sell signal using metrics that are not mine has led to my taking short positions on CMG again.
Do your own homework because CMG has fooled and hurt many of us in the past --BUT the chart here indicates a sell on a 4-hour cycle and looking at past cycles it could extend for several days - more if we are lucky.
I suggest vertical put spreads in the AUG 30 and Sept 6 series - and I took a flier with a handful of straight puts further out of the money. I'll leave the specific trade to those of you who have your own styles but think we could get AT LEAST another 20 points down to below 800 - and easily lower IF we get some help from overall market direction.
A nominal sell-off in the next few days could help hedge fund money go short - though they have always traded as though they know something we don't!
Ideas welcome.
Trade active:
My chart mark-ups did not come through but the red circled in yellow (bottom of chart) is a sell confirmation