I believe this is just a rally back into resistance here on May 22, 2012 at 404.48 +11.15 or 2.83%.
I will wait until tomorrow to short and I will look for a 410-415 IDEAL ENTRY LEVEL and will look for a 384-380 target. My stop will be 425-430.
Just giving a heads up early.
Cheers.
Comments
timwest
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I'm covering right now (382.73). This has taken much more time than thought originally, but the stop never hit and it has been a good hedge for my portfolio to boot.
dimes
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I agree. When trades take to much time to materialize(at least for me)your time/ /effort can be used to focus on other possible trades. And tied up capital can be another issue. That was a short coming of mine when I started trading, I would never cut the trade short of my projected target. I think it had to do with focus on being right more than cutting a trade for a profit. Ego can play a big part in draining a traders bank account, the thing I noticed as I move forward and meet more experienced traders is they care more about there account and care less on being right. Just A thought.
timwest
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If I had found other trades that I liked more then I would have focused my energy in other places. It was a great trade overall and I nailed the entry level to a tee and there were many wide swings back and forth to trade in an out of the position, which is ideal for me. Overall, your thoughts provide a mixed picture. If you cut all of your trades short of their projected targets, then your winners wont cover your losers over time. Instead of getting philosophical here, the important thing is to know your own shortcomings so they don't interfere with logical decision making. What is right for you is right for you. There is not one universal way to trade properly. Some people are wrong 90% of the time and make money and some people are right 90% of the time and lose money. Just know what you are doing and why and learn how to survive through the lean periods where there are no profits. To summarize: We can all help each other at this site by allowing ourselves to share our thinking, which will allow us to follow our own trades with conviction. Cheers dimes.
dimes
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While writing the comment I kind of had a feeling I was coming across that way...You are correct that does sound like I am saying I cut all my trades short and it does sound like a bit of a contradiction. Let me clarify a little, I have cut trades a few times when I have been pretty certain the target was not going to be met, or the trade took a while to materialize and the action did not go as plan. I trade intermarket Analysis first, then pattern recognition along with fib.clusters and projections for entry and exits. I use Elliott Wave for objective stops. Some times the trade does not go exactly according to plan and if I can use intermarket analysis to to help close a trade a little earlier than a stop then I will do that. So maybe in short I was not completely
correct on trend but I always make sure I have a shorter term target that I take profits on and a longer one where I do cut short at times. The spy trade I had going I booked partial profits and the longer target was closed today before it hit my stop because I saw currency markets turning up and spy hitting fib zone where it bounced arond and then started to turn up.I explained it before it happened and charted it and said what I was looking for. But in short I was wrong and made sure I cut it early enough.Most of the time it does not come back and bite me but I consider everything first,what is oil telling me,currencies,S&P, Sometime my trades last for weeks. I am still learning thanks for the advice and you are absolutely right about knowing what I am doing, Money Management is the most important thing in my point of view. I read your comments and really pay attention and I am already looking for my first market profile reading. I hope I did not confuse.Thanks for your time.
timwest
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CMG big gap down today. I have been watching the rally in commodities and wondered when it would hit these stocks. Imagine the cereal manufacturers: They too will have cost problems in the near term.
charttrader
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Good trade Tim. Unfortunately i did not follow it....
timwest
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Thanks chart trader. And thanks Tradingview for providing such a nice, easy to use, friendly site where traders can share ideas and opinions.
charttrader
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Tim, could you please provide your opinion/post an update on CMG at this moment? Do you agree with long term shorting opportunities published by nmike tradingview.com/v/HmtAaV1p/ ?
bernie-mac
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Agreed.
timwest
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Here we are in the "entry" box... Rally in CMG is right into the "aggressive sellers" red circles I have noted on the chart.