quantguy
Long

How to Profit from the IMF's Decision on the Yuan

FX_IDC:CNHUSD   OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR
Following the IMF's decision to add the Yuan to the SDR             bucket. Fundamentally, this will imply a rush to stock up. Many central banks keep a reserve supply of other currencies, commodities , etc, with an emphasis on SDR's. This fact, coupled with the dollars eventual deceleration come an interest rate decision in December could imply that CNHUSD will be a good long trade.

The technicals look weak, to be completely honest. There is some resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud and the MACD suggests some negative momentum, though the MACD/RSI combination does suggest now is a good time to make a move, not necessarily a long position.

This chart pattern does look conspicuously like an ABCD pattern waiting to happen. The ratio of the first leg is right in the sweet spot at just over 0.6, so assuming a completion of this pattern, we can expect the other leg between 1.2 and 1.6, so a conservative profit target has been set using a ratio of 1.2, which is right around 0.15829.

Assuming a 50% Fibonacci retracement anchored at 8/25 and 10/30, we can set a stop loss at 0.15208.

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