Over the last four trading sessions, coffee prices have recorded average fluctuations of around 2.5%, a relatively low figure compared with previous weeks when price movements could reach as much as 5% per day. For now, this behavior has begun to highlight a consistent indecision bias in short-term price movements.
Despite the fact that recent sessions have been marked by a strong season of rains and flooding in Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing state in Brazil, the market has not reacted with particularly strong bullish pressure. This is noteworthy considering that Brazil produces around 35% of the world’s coffee and that persistent rainfall could potentially generate supply disruptions. However, this recent weather event has largely been interpreted by the market as temporary and unlikely to significantly affect production in 2026. In fact, previous forecasts suggest that production may stabilize during the current year. As a result, although the weather conditions have led to a slight increase in coffee prices in the short term, the market continues to display a consistent indecision bias near the lows observed in 2026. In this context, this phase of indecision may remain relevant during the coming trading sessions unless weather developments begin to point toward a more meaningful disruption in production over the following weeks.
Bearish trend remains highly dominant:
Despite recent recovery attempts in coffee prices, bullish movements remain insufficient to trigger a clear break above the long-standing bearish trend line that has been in place since October 2025. For this reason, this technical pattern continues to be the most relevant element currently visible on the chart. If selling pressure re-emerges during the coming sessions, it could extend this trend line further, reinforcing the bearish structure that has dominated the market over the past several months. In this scenario, a much stronger recovery would be required to eliminate the strong long-term selling bias that continues to influence coffee price movements.
RSI: The RSI indicator is currently hovering very close to the neutral 50 level. This behavior suggests that there is a relatively balanced dynamic between bullish and bearish forces over the past 14 trading sessions. If this pattern continues, it could point to sustained neutrality in price action and reinforce the phase of indecision that has begun to characterize the market in recent sessions.
MACD: A similar situation can be observed in the MACD indicator, as its histogram remains very close to the neutral 0 line. This suggests that the strength of short-term moving averages is currently in neutral territory, which also contributes to the lack of a clear directional bias in coffee prices in the short term.
Key levels to watch:
33.443: Major resistance. This level corresponds to a previous neutrality barrier observed in earlier weeks and stands above the current bearish trend line. Price movements reaching this level could open the door to a more meaningful shift in market dynamics, potentially allowing bullish pressure to take control and even leading to the formation of a new upward trend line in the coming weeks.
30.704: Near-term resistance that corresponds to highs observed in July 2025. This level also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average and the long-term bearish trend line. Price movements that manage to break above this barrier could end the current neutrality bias and begin to challenge the broader bearish structure that has dominated the market in recent months, potentially giving way to stronger bullish pressure in upcoming sessions.
27.935: Relevant support level corresponding to the lows recorded in 2026 and standing as the most important bearish barrier in the short term. Price movements that fall below this level could reactivate meaningful selling pressure and lead to a further extension of the long-term bearish trend that has dominated the coffee market in recent months.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Despite the fact that recent sessions have been marked by a strong season of rains and flooding in Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing state in Brazil, the market has not reacted with particularly strong bullish pressure. This is noteworthy considering that Brazil produces around 35% of the world’s coffee and that persistent rainfall could potentially generate supply disruptions. However, this recent weather event has largely been interpreted by the market as temporary and unlikely to significantly affect production in 2026. In fact, previous forecasts suggest that production may stabilize during the current year. As a result, although the weather conditions have led to a slight increase in coffee prices in the short term, the market continues to display a consistent indecision bias near the lows observed in 2026. In this context, this phase of indecision may remain relevant during the coming trading sessions unless weather developments begin to point toward a more meaningful disruption in production over the following weeks.
Bearish trend remains highly dominant:
Despite recent recovery attempts in coffee prices, bullish movements remain insufficient to trigger a clear break above the long-standing bearish trend line that has been in place since October 2025. For this reason, this technical pattern continues to be the most relevant element currently visible on the chart. If selling pressure re-emerges during the coming sessions, it could extend this trend line further, reinforcing the bearish structure that has dominated the market over the past several months. In this scenario, a much stronger recovery would be required to eliminate the strong long-term selling bias that continues to influence coffee price movements.
RSI: The RSI indicator is currently hovering very close to the neutral 50 level. This behavior suggests that there is a relatively balanced dynamic between bullish and bearish forces over the past 14 trading sessions. If this pattern continues, it could point to sustained neutrality in price action and reinforce the phase of indecision that has begun to characterize the market in recent sessions.
MACD: A similar situation can be observed in the MACD indicator, as its histogram remains very close to the neutral 0 line. This suggests that the strength of short-term moving averages is currently in neutral territory, which also contributes to the lack of a clear directional bias in coffee prices in the short term.
Key levels to watch:
33.443: Major resistance. This level corresponds to a previous neutrality barrier observed in earlier weeks and stands above the current bearish trend line. Price movements reaching this level could open the door to a more meaningful shift in market dynamics, potentially allowing bullish pressure to take control and even leading to the formation of a new upward trend line in the coming weeks.
30.704: Near-term resistance that corresponds to highs observed in July 2025. This level also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average and the long-term bearish trend line. Price movements that manage to break above this barrier could end the current neutrality bias and begin to challenge the broader bearish structure that has dominated the market in recent months, potentially giving way to stronger bullish pressure in upcoming sessions.
27.935: Relevant support level corresponding to the lows recorded in 2026 and standing as the most important bearish barrier in the short term. Price movements that fall below this level could reactivate meaningful selling pressure and lead to a further extension of the long-term bearish trend that has dominated the coffee market in recent months.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.