Since the beginning of the month, coffee has maintained a consistent short-term bearish bias, accumulating a decline of more than 4.00% in its price.
The selling pressure, which has already extended over several weeks of trading, remains mainly driven by expectations of a larger coffee harvest in Brazil for the 2026–2027 period, with the season officially beginning in July. This production is estimated to grow by around 11.5% compared to the previous season, supported by favorable weather conditions, according to data from the Coffee Trading Academy.
This event is relevant considering that Brazil remains the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for approximately 35% of global production. In this context, an improvement in harvests could generate a significant increase in global supply over the coming months.
This has started to raise concerns about a potential imbalance between supply and demand, as production growth may not be matched by demand at the same pace. As a result, expectations of higher production have become the main fundamental catalyst behind the bearish pressure seen in coffee prices, and as long as this outlook remains in place, the selling bias is likely to remain relevant in the short term.
The bearish trend remains the relevant pattern: Since October 2025, coffee has developed a structure of lower highs, which has led to the formation of a long-term bearish trendline in the price.
So far, no significant bullish correction has emerged to threaten this structure, meaning this pattern remains the main technical reference that could continue to influence price movements over the coming weeks.
RSI: The RSI currently remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the average short-term momentum continues to reflect a selling bias.
As long as this behavior remains in place, bearish pressure may continue to dominate coffee price action in the coming sessions.
MACD: The MACD shows a similar dynamic, with the histogram holding below the 0 level, indicating that short-term moving average strength also reflects a relevant bearish bias.
If this behavior persists, it could continue to support the continuation of selling pressure in coffee prices in the short term.
Key levels to watch:
31,685 – Relevant resistance: A recent high level located above the long-term bearish trendline. Price movements that manage to break above this area could confirm the emergence of a more relevant bullish bias and even open the door to the formation of a short-term uptrend.
30,273 – Near-term barrier: A reference level located around the bearish trendline and close to the 50-period moving average. Moves above this level could start to put the dominant bearish structure at risk and give way to a more consistent bullish bias in the coming sessions.
27,024 – Key support: A 2026 low that acts as the main downside barrier. Price movements below this area would reaffirm the dominance of the selling bias and could lead to an extension of the bearish trend in the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The selling pressure, which has already extended over several weeks of trading, remains mainly driven by expectations of a larger coffee harvest in Brazil for the 2026–2027 period, with the season officially beginning in July. This production is estimated to grow by around 11.5% compared to the previous season, supported by favorable weather conditions, according to data from the Coffee Trading Academy.
This event is relevant considering that Brazil remains the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for approximately 35% of global production. In this context, an improvement in harvests could generate a significant increase in global supply over the coming months.
This has started to raise concerns about a potential imbalance between supply and demand, as production growth may not be matched by demand at the same pace. As a result, expectations of higher production have become the main fundamental catalyst behind the bearish pressure seen in coffee prices, and as long as this outlook remains in place, the selling bias is likely to remain relevant in the short term.
The bearish trend remains the relevant pattern: Since October 2025, coffee has developed a structure of lower highs, which has led to the formation of a long-term bearish trendline in the price.
So far, no significant bullish correction has emerged to threaten this structure, meaning this pattern remains the main technical reference that could continue to influence price movements over the coming weeks.
RSI: The RSI currently remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the average short-term momentum continues to reflect a selling bias.
As long as this behavior remains in place, bearish pressure may continue to dominate coffee price action in the coming sessions.
MACD: The MACD shows a similar dynamic, with the histogram holding below the 0 level, indicating that short-term moving average strength also reflects a relevant bearish bias.
If this behavior persists, it could continue to support the continuation of selling pressure in coffee prices in the short term.
Key levels to watch:
31,685 – Relevant resistance: A recent high level located above the long-term bearish trendline. Price movements that manage to break above this area could confirm the emergence of a more relevant bullish bias and even open the door to the formation of a short-term uptrend.
30,273 – Near-term barrier: A reference level located around the bearish trendline and close to the 50-period moving average. Moves above this level could start to put the dominant bearish structure at risk and give way to a more consistent bullish bias in the coming sessions.
27,024 – Key support: A 2026 low that acts as the main downside barrier. Price movements below this area would reaffirm the dominance of the selling bias and could lead to an extension of the bearish trend in the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.