The Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) 4-hour chart is a perfect fractal of the Bitcoin weekly chart. Good ole' Wyckoff distribution. It even has the little Bart Simpson correction pattern from August 2020 that occurred shortly after the last halving and a few months before the first big leg up.
Considering current price action, Bitcoin and Coinbase, for that matter, will potentially be kicking off their fifth and final HTF waves up following what are likely to be multi-month consolidations. The next few months could resemble a less severe version of the "mini bear market" the crypto market experienced in the summer of 2021.
In BTC, I'm looking for stretch downside targets of around 56k and around 51k if 56k breaks. If it gets all the way down there, it would be a gift. On shorter time frames, assuming the 69k/70k resistance is not breached, there is likely more downside to come for both assets. Corrections to the upside should be approached with caution.
On COIN, an S/R flip under the fib fan's 50% level is all but confirmed on the 4-hour chart. If historical price action is any indication, this fractal suggests that testing the 0.618 is definitely in the cards. I'm eyeing $220 as a potential target. It's supported by a strong demand zone and the weekly VWAP.
Sentiment should remain relatively bullish on higher time frames so long as 50k isn't breached.
Update: Given Bitcoin's recent price action, following the S&P's lead in starting a daily down trend, a break for BTC below 59k would likely send it to the zone between 52k and 48k with a stop around 56.8k where the yearly VWAP currently sits. If 59k holds and we do not get a weekly candle body below it, it could signal a bullish reversal. For COIN, $166 to $160 is now in the cards with higher support around $220 and $195, though if BTC were to drop to 50k, the lowest target will be very foreseeable.
TraderJoe_11
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Update: Price got a perfect intraday bounce off the 0.618. Would have made for an excellent day trade. Very possible it continues lower, but keep the fib fan in mind as it continues to be highly respected.
TraderJoe_11
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Update: Bitcoin has continued to show strength while holding the bottom of a triangle it is trading in on the daily chart. I am now under the belief that a drop below 60k is unlikely during this consolidation and COIN shouldn't drop below $195 or so. This may just be a pause before more upside like in the last cycle.
TraderJoe_11
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Update: I would also add that $220 is an initial target to get a reaction along with $202, but $166 is my stretch target to the downside as it is the range POC and would absorb a large liquidity pool.