IHSG Weekly Outlook: Testing the Upper Channel as Momentum Weakens
Market Overview
The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) has maintained a broad uptrend structure for nearly a decade, supported by the nation’s resilient macroeconomic backdrop and continued investor appetite for domestic equities. Since 2015, the index has moved within a long-term ascending channel, establishing higher highs and higher lows across major cycles.
However, as of late October 2025, IHSG is testing a critical inflection zone near the upper boundary of this long-term channel, positioned between 8,200 and 8,300. The market has shown hesitation around this area, with several sessions of profit-taking emerging after briefly touching the upper resistance line.
While the broader trend remains constructive, early signs of momentum loss are becoming visible on key technical indicators such as the MACD and Stochastic RSI, suggesting that the index may be entering a short-term cooling phase following its strong multi-month rally.
Long-Term Structure: The Channel That Defines the Trend
A glance at the weekly chart reveals that IHSG has been respecting a well-defined ascending channel since 2015. Each cycle low—seen in 2015, 2020, and 2023—was followed by an upward recovery that consistently brought prices back toward the upper channel resistance.
This channel not only defines the market’s long-term bullish rhythm but also serves as a visual gauge for potential overextension. Every time IHSG approached the top boundary, a period of consolidation or technical correction followed. The most recent move is consistent with this historical pattern: as the index touched the upper channel near 8,300, selling pressure started to emerge, indicating that investors may be locking in profits after a prolonged advance.
From a structural perspective, the primary uptrend remains intact. The support zone around 7,700–7,800 marks the midline area and is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. A weekly close below this support could trigger a deeper retracement toward the lower band of the channel around 7,300–7,400.
As long as IHSG stays above 7,700, the medium-term outlook remains positive, but the index is now at a stage where upward progress may become more gradual and selective.
MACD: Momentum Losing Steam
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key measure of market momentum, remains in the positive territory but is showing the first signs of softening. The histogram bars, which measure the difference between the MACD line and its signal line, have started to narrow. This suggests that bullish momentum, while still present, is fading in strength.
Historically, similar MACD slowdowns on the weekly timeframe have preceded sideways phases or corrective waves lasting several weeks. If the MACD line crosses below its signal line in the coming sessions, it would confirm a bearish crossover, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
At this stage, it’s not an outright reversal signal, rather, a warning that the rally is maturing. For swing traders and portfolio managers, this is typically a period to scale back aggressive long positions, lock in partial profits, and reassess exposure to sectors that have already priced in strong earnings growth or macro optimism.
Stochastic RSI: From Overbought to Cooling Down
Read full analysis on :
darrismanresearch com
join telegr Channel :
Saham Kita
Market Overview
The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) has maintained a broad uptrend structure for nearly a decade, supported by the nation’s resilient macroeconomic backdrop and continued investor appetite for domestic equities. Since 2015, the index has moved within a long-term ascending channel, establishing higher highs and higher lows across major cycles.
However, as of late October 2025, IHSG is testing a critical inflection zone near the upper boundary of this long-term channel, positioned between 8,200 and 8,300. The market has shown hesitation around this area, with several sessions of profit-taking emerging after briefly touching the upper resistance line.
While the broader trend remains constructive, early signs of momentum loss are becoming visible on key technical indicators such as the MACD and Stochastic RSI, suggesting that the index may be entering a short-term cooling phase following its strong multi-month rally.
Long-Term Structure: The Channel That Defines the Trend
A glance at the weekly chart reveals that IHSG has been respecting a well-defined ascending channel since 2015. Each cycle low—seen in 2015, 2020, and 2023—was followed by an upward recovery that consistently brought prices back toward the upper channel resistance.
This channel not only defines the market’s long-term bullish rhythm but also serves as a visual gauge for potential overextension. Every time IHSG approached the top boundary, a period of consolidation or technical correction followed. The most recent move is consistent with this historical pattern: as the index touched the upper channel near 8,300, selling pressure started to emerge, indicating that investors may be locking in profits after a prolonged advance.
From a structural perspective, the primary uptrend remains intact. The support zone around 7,700–7,800 marks the midline area and is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. A weekly close below this support could trigger a deeper retracement toward the lower band of the channel around 7,300–7,400.
As long as IHSG stays above 7,700, the medium-term outlook remains positive, but the index is now at a stage where upward progress may become more gradual and selective.
MACD: Momentum Losing Steam
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key measure of market momentum, remains in the positive territory but is showing the first signs of softening. The histogram bars, which measure the difference between the MACD line and its signal line, have started to narrow. This suggests that bullish momentum, while still present, is fading in strength.
Historically, similar MACD slowdowns on the weekly timeframe have preceded sideways phases or corrective waves lasting several weeks. If the MACD line crosses below its signal line in the coming sessions, it would confirm a bearish crossover, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
At this stage, it’s not an outright reversal signal, rather, a warning that the rally is maturing. For swing traders and portfolio managers, this is typically a period to scale back aggressive long positions, lock in partial profits, and reassess exposure to sectors that have already priced in strong earnings growth or macro optimism.
Stochastic RSI: From Overbought to Cooling Down
Read full analysis on :
darrismanresearch com
join telegr Channel :
Saham Kita
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.