Idea for COVID-19: - We believe that the fight against COVID-19 has entered the mid game. - Can COVID-19 be beaten in the game of evolution? We think so. Viruses are rational actors, and will behave as a population in the interests of their evolutionary fitness. - While the media's narrative of "wave 3" of COVID-19 has spread and is widely known, Motive Wave 2 of COVID-19 will begin in June 2021 (new wave 1 2 3), which will end at the end of 2022.
Speculation: - Global vaccinations and pandemic responses have introduced strong selective pressure on the virus since the beginning of the year. - From summer to the end of the year, the virus will select a new dominant variant to dominate.
Expectations for the end of Motive Wave 2 (2022-2023): - Uncontrolled Growth: 1.3 Billion+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths. - Infectivity and Vaccine resistance: 900 Million+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths. - Lethality: 470 Million+ infected, 16.4 Million+ deaths. - Severity/and or Vaccine resistance (without infectivity): 320 Million+ infected, 10.9 Million+ deaths. - Successful Vaccination: Infection should drop rapidly, but 5.4 Million+ deaths.
To model total deaths , we fit the % curve of the moving average:
Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
Trade active
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The virus has opted for the infectivity and vaccine resistance path as of now.
But we are of course looking at Covid death totals.
Interesting Bloomberg piece on rising death toll in 25 to 40 year old population of Brazil.
Nicely done.
Investing Covid thoughts..
The bondholders of the cruiselines would have known the drop was coming with the earliest quarantined ships and sharp drop in bookings and cruise terminations. Bonds would have been partially liquidated and short positions and long put positions established in the common.
As the news broke in 2020 the cruiselines went to zero revenue and maintenance costs, unemployment and employee termination expenses rose as debt servicing capacity decreased.
As the stock cratered, the bondholders renegotiated terms (no one really can take the ships and sell them to another operator in the same situation).
News reports that the debt had been renegotiated and the bondholders swapped existing coupon for new higher coupon and piled on addiitonal debt on the operating businesses. The bond covenants would have accelerated the coupon to be added to the debt load to be refinanced.
The bondholders before the announcement of debt refinance would have closed short positions in the equity, opened long stock and option call positions while buying in the old debt issues at reduced prices.
Now the stock is rising but there will be limited earnings for the common with the increased debt service. Is it a great idea to buy shares in an enterprise that has high maintenance costs and low income potential in the next few years?
DPT - you have pointed out rhe problem going forward for the retail trader.
This problem appears to have a long tail and the institutions know how to play this game.
Consider as an aside - a US President in the hotel business who saw it coming but failed to warn and plan and dragged his feet because hotels would be empty. He was the common holder and saw the upper hand of the debt holder coming to do personal harm - so much for the common good.
Thanks for the insight, as always. I try to keep an eye on institutional movements for tells, but of course, they typically move in secrecy until they want you to know.
jazerbay
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very interesting, have to ruminate on this. Thank you for sharing Mr. Darkpooltrading
jazerbay
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Very unique stuff here. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and the data. ( Thanks again) good data here.⏫
But we are of course looking at Covid death totals.
Interesting Bloomberg piece on rising death toll in 25 to 40 year old population of Brazil.
Nicely done.
Investing Covid thoughts..
The bondholders of the cruiselines would have known the drop was coming with the earliest quarantined ships and sharp drop in bookings and cruise terminations. Bonds would have been partially liquidated and short positions and long put positions established in the common.
As the news broke in 2020 the cruiselines went to zero revenue and maintenance costs, unemployment and employee termination expenses rose as debt servicing capacity decreased.
As the stock cratered, the bondholders renegotiated terms (no one really can take the ships and sell them to another operator in the same situation).
News reports that the debt had been renegotiated and the bondholders swapped existing coupon for new higher coupon and piled on addiitonal debt on the operating businesses. The bond covenants would have accelerated the coupon to be added to the debt load to be refinanced.
The bondholders before the announcement of debt refinance would have closed short positions in the equity, opened long stock and option call positions while buying in the old debt issues at reduced prices.
Now the stock is rising but there will be limited earnings for the common with the increased debt service. Is it a great idea to buy shares in an enterprise that has high maintenance costs and low income potential in the next few years?
DPT - you have pointed out rhe problem going forward for the retail trader.
This problem appears to have a long tail and the institutions know how to play this game.
Consider as an aside - a US President in the hotel business who saw it coming but failed to warn and plan and dragged his feet because hotels would be empty. He was the common holder and saw the upper hand of the debt holder coming to do personal harm - so much for the common good.
I guess we could call this "The Art of the Deal."
all the best