Please note I am using the TradingView Confirmed TOTAL COVID data line and then projecting how I think COVID will progress using the Spanish Flu as precedence - I am also assuming there will be no vaccine at least till next summer:
I have tried to keep this analysis/projection simple using two estimates:
1) Looking at how the Spanish flu happened in 3 waves and the time frame in which that happened;
2) Looking at the direction of the exponential increase in confirmed cases globally.
Reminder that CONFIRMED includes recoveries and deaths, so it can't go down
arigolden
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@someone2020, thank you for pointing that out and yes you are correct - the overall idea that COVID potentially can come back in waves much like the Spanish flu is unchanged but one can chart COVID-Deaths to correctly see dips in the chart. Thank you for highlighting this.
dylaancannon
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@someone2020, would like to see a chart with total outstanding cases. Using deaths and recoveries to "decrease" outstanding cases. This may actually be a little bit more useful than using total cases confirmed, as you are right it will only go up otherwise.
arigolden
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@dylaancannon, as of the time of this writing, there are some data issues on Trading Views side (I have already raised a ticket with them on this): neither of these two things work at the moment: subtracting deaths from total confirmed or dividing deaths by confirmed cases.