MrRenev
Education

Virus spread/Bacteria poluation/Ponzi scheme lifecycle

This is the most important chart of the next 12 weeks.

It always follows a similar pattern.
Top can happen at any time, but with the temperature spike of this week (right as europe & usa quarantine started) + lockdown + sun, it could be close actually.

One thing is clear: Fear is profitable. Can also lead to huge losses. And at what point does it just become random gambling?
Noobs will chase every move, or not cut their losses, or have a losing strategy, get emotional, either way, will get rekt.

The top can look many ways, like a weak diagonal up, flat, flat on average, sharp V, etc.

Here is the example of a ponzi scheme currently in the stationary phase:


Goldman sachs is calling for a Q2 growth number of -10% or something like this heh :D

The worse could be over, actually I totally expect the stock indices to have bottomed (for now) and go higher. BTC too.

Traders of course secretly wish it gets way worse, and are angry at politicians trying to save lives - allthought their actions do more harm than good and will hurt the economy badly which is good for us.
I won't lie, like I many I have dreamt (literally) of a catastrophy like this a few times. It's not that bad which is a shame, but it is something.
We are not here to look like caring people, we are here to make money at other's expense. What a wonderful period we are going through ^^

Every one is so afraid, terrified, reverting back to full reptilian brain (as opposed as only 99% usually), their primal fears are emerging, they do not make rational decisions, they would sell an obvious bottom at all time low Price to Earnings , allowing non-reptilian brains ("polite" people call it non-emotional) to make big profits.
Also moves are super violent and one sided, barely any retrace. HUGE rewards to risks. Fear panic death and misery is very profitable. And looks like it could get worse and much more people could get sick, lose their job, et caetera. AWESOME!

For the next weeks the driver I guess will be this chart here...

Let's check back on this every few days.
Comment: Ah, here is a link to check temperatures of the past:
https://www.wunderground.com/history/mon...

Most cases happen at about 45°N, here is a quick map:
https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-con...

Here is the article of this map:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b...

Personally I think temperature is a big factor but not the only one and it's not a huge one, it does play a part.
And it makes sense, a cold virus becomes less and less resistant as T & Lux go up, but it is not binary, the less resistant it is, the less impact it will have, but still if you have full open borders and let infected people spit in your mouth I don't care if you live in Sudan, your odds will be higher than an italian confined at hom breathing through a mask.

To convert wunderground temperatures to serious units:
https://tononretard.com

All I want for christ- for emm easter? is a 50% global crash (oil crypto stocks).
Comment: I recommend watching the recent numberphile (youtube channel) video on modelling the coronavirus curve(s).
Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...

Every single death under 40 was people with serious pre-existing conditions.

People that die are obese smokers etc.

People that panic are young with low BMI, can't tell if they are smokers thought.

The whole world put on pause to protect fat lazy & old people.
Same old, same old.

Smoking and the obesity pandemic has existed for decades, they have been warned.
Not like "oh noes a terrible virus no one could have predicted this they did nothing wrong".

"Let's use trillions of taxpayers money to fuel a free medical system for old people in their last 6 months and for fat lazy smokers".

The west already asked the 1970-2010 generation to pay for retirements, to not be able to afford rent, and to suffer big inequality and a depression soon.

The consequences of asking a sacrifice of every one to protect fat basterds will be far worse than a few smokers dying or people like me hurting some feelings.

Boy did this pin pop the bubble.

Revolution or ww3 soon.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SB1!/O...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SB1!/u...

It's over.
Comment: Just to clarify, as people and especially governments are too idiotic to find a measured response - it's either:
- Lock everything down and act like it's the zombie apocalypse
- Full open borders & kiss asians off of planes from china to prove you aren't racist

THEN, a zombie apocalypse is better...
Plus after you not only let, but HELPED it spread, at some point you kinda have to do something, and it took those brainlets getting desperate...

We don't have ebola outbreaks in europe... Containing the wuhan coronavirus should have been simple...
Comment: Some bullet point news:

- ID specialists say there is a cure
- ID specialists say they have a vaccine that is simple to mass produce & administer
- Someone has found job postings & other documents China has been so bad at hiding, proving the virus started in a lab and they messed up and they tried covering it up (poorly)
- China mobile phone users have dropped by several millions...
- China just ordered 200,000 bodybags from Taiwan (...)
- Some people will rage at you for being a bear & pessimistic about this
- Some people (the same) will rage at you for being optimistic ("downplaying the threat")
- I think we are entering the stationary phase, the top of this lifecycle

Time for the US stock market 61.8% rally before the big crash/money printer goes brrr.
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.

Comments

Despite being wrong in your reasoning you managed to get a couple good things right. In terms of the markets the conspiracies about China really don't matter at all. As well, it's a pandemic so cutting off travel from China two or three months after hearing about it wouldn't do anything. It especially wouldn't do anything if after that warning 40k people were received from China, weren't tested, and the people who came in contact with them weren't wearing any protective gear.

What you got right was the bear trap cross-over line. If you took that to heart you probably made money on this very irrational rally we're experiencing right now. Another thing I think you got right is that I'm pretty sure your crash is coming in the next two weeks. That remains to be seen, of course, but you're likely right about that.

It's funny though, because so many traders like you who have that brash semi-Trump air about them tend to miss some really obvious stuff. Hubris will always make certain facts invisible. It has been shown that contact is by far what determines who gets COVID. Underlying conditions do exacerbate the symptoms, but some perfectly healthy people get it and fall over dead. Younger people are suffering from different symptoms that are thus far very difficult to explain. We don't know nearly enough, and never have, to draw the conclusions you have decided to work from. I don't have any idea why you've shown confidence in these assumptions.

Clearly, if you know anything about how anything spreads at all, a measured response can only happen after the mechanism of the spread is understood. Once that mechanism is understood then the interruption of that mechanism is the only thing that can stop it. Trump dismantled and continues to dismantle virtually every effort that has been made in that direction with exception to stopping travel from China which literally did nothing because no precautions were taken outside of that. Aside from that he's incited people to defy stay-at-home orders, to rebel against their state gov'ts with public rallies, he's called the whole thing a hoax and many still believe it, he misstated all the vital info on its contagiousness and lethality, and just creating chaos generally. He's flying completely blind on purpose and generating doubt in every scientific and medical professional that he can, even those who he's hired.

You're gonna get your crash, but it's mostly what you're wrong about that will bring it. This virus has the best fuel it could ever have found in a president that refuses to respect it. Nothing else is quite as consequential.
Reply
MrRenev Incogniteaux
@Incogniteaux, > We knew of the virus since December. Also China cut internal travel but let Wuhan population spread out.
> You tell me I missed out something, then you speak about contact being how the virus spread. Not sure what I missed out? I didn't know proximity led to spread?
> It's a coronavirus. We know how respiratory virus spread we don't know all the details. We have a rough idea of how infectious disease work.
> I still don't see what I am wrong about.
> Oh by the way, up to March people from China were being let in without any testing, people recorded them being let in airports and all. Italians even went out to kiss chinese people to show how "not racist" they were. Idiots. And then Italy got hit hardest.
Reply
LOL thought it would be over in 2 months??? lolol just make the Graph like 10x bigger and maybe we will be close to how long it will be around before we ALL die or get a cure or something similar. ( minimum of the next 1-2 years) clinical trial stage 4 is the real killer. (time and money killer)
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You're a piece of shit. Not really any other way to put it. Also you sound barely literate.
Reply
MrRenev NY2CaliTrader
@NY2CaliTrader, A living, breathing, healthy one ^^
+2 Reply
LoneWolf84 NY2CaliTrader
@NY2CaliTrader, lol you sound triggered
Reply
Corona is going to the Moon lol
+2 Reply
lol
Reply
what the hell? Is that Covid on tradingview. Time to pull out the trendlines, fibs and moving averages
+8 Reply
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