SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IX

Like a bad zombie movie, the unexpected happened. The start of July appeared as if all was going well, and then suddenly, a new cluster was discovered and the depth and width of this cluster spread was far deeper and wider than anticipated. The model did not pick up this incoming, and for the first time it failed to. This has significance as it is an anomalous event, a game changer if you will, and in such circumstances, it tells a lot.

The green arrows depict the speed of the spread, as well as the discovery by detection. Yes, we are getting better at detection, but only after knowing that there is a cluster. The green arrows point steeper upwards in the past two weeks and the weekly chart signals that this would take more weeks than previously, as well as there would be more affected than previously.

The initial spike has not yet decelerated, but should be tapering off in the weeks to come, thereafter, we may or may not see smaller spikes with smaller clusters surfacing.
Stricter measure have just been put in place and it would take months for this one to pan out, taking us to end August.

Nonetheless, Singapore still remains very lucky by any comparison to the rest of the world. When luck runs out, we would not know, but this is a warning yet again that any complacency would be met with a viral comeback response.

HODL would be appropriate for this circumstance... stay well and safe!

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