If we keep spreading Covid-19 at the rate it is currently at. By May 11th we should have almost a half a million confirmed cases and over 4000 deaths .


12:33 AM CT March 27th, 2020 - 104,256 confirmed case in the US.
Comment: Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing
Comment: As of Monday morning, it estimates that more than 2,000 people could die each day in the United States in mid-April, when the virus is predicted to hit the country hardest. The model, which is updated regularly, predicts that 224,000 hospital beds -- 61,000 more than we'll have -- will be needed on April 15, when the US is estimated to reach "peak resource use."
Trade active: Data is lagged by a week from testing a human and getting the test back. We keep hearing that tests are quick and 15 minutes, but not all of the US population has access to these tests. My target will be reached much quicker.
Comment: USA confirmed cases 459,851 New cases today as of this time +24,924 Deaths 16,372 new deaths today +1,584 Recovered 24,961
Comment: Lets see if it breaks through the 1/3 time fib
Comment: April 19th is the 1.382 fib
Trade active: Hit the 1/3 fib
Comment: Most deaths in one day.
Comment: May 29th we hit the next time fib.


May 29th we hit the next time fib.
This isnt linear, rather exponential, for every one person who has it, they will on average, spread it to 2 ppl
Simon1988 wombattywombat
@wombattywombat, Agreed. It will spread to one person and spread exponentially. Opening up the economy will cause a second wave.
Simon1988 Simon1988
@Simon1988, spreading it to one two four eight and so on.
Dang. Spot on. What is your prediction for the peak?
Simon1988 M4m2m0th
@M4m2m0th, By next week I bet we get to 550,000 cases. We might have a slow down of the rate of confirmed cases, but I have no idea on a peak.
The virus will tell us when we peak, not the opening day the government tells us.
Simon1988 M4m2m0th
@M4m2m0th, Lets see what April 19th brings.
I'm thinking the rate is highly dependent on what happens in the next few days. The thing is the cases you are seeing are most likey 5 days behind and as resources become more stressed less tests will be given unless you have severe symptoms. There are simply not enough tests available. I predict we will see a drop in the number of confirmed cases over the next couple of weeks, but a high rate of death increases.
ThaDocta ThaDocta
@ThaDocta, also the deaths could be classified as pneumonia, so perhaps keeping an eye on that and comparing to yearly/monthly averages could be useful.
Simon1988 ThaDocta
@ThaDocta, Yah the data is not updating at real-time. Here in Montana we have a lack of test and Trump told the governor that he has not heard anything. We could see a drop in May, but who knows.
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