Tradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below).
Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart.
Say what you see! I'll say what I see.
If the war on COVID was being won, one would expect to see at least clear plateaus. That makes sense because it means there is no massive set of new cases to increase the total. I hope folk get the point.
Watch the red arrows. 1. On death total - it's accelerating. Certainly no plateau. 2. On case total - it's accelerating. No plateau.
Of course this does not mean that the numbers won't plateau. The point is that the trajectories and the power of the numbers means they're not winning the war.
A plateau would probably have been expected in the post-vaccination era. Some say, the plateau is coming soon. How would they know. Do they know the future better than everybody else?
All I know is what I see: There are no plateaus.
Do we stay with evidence or do we believe rhetoric repeated in lamestream media? Well, the choice is yours.
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Comment
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The data comprising the chart has been found to be incorrect thanks to @sparo bringing up the issue. Please see comments below.
The conclusions are unchanged even after applying the correct data.
Your death chart plots 200k-ish people dying from Sept 4 to Sept 21. 17 days. That's 11 thousand people per day. This is not correct.
Captain_Walker
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@sparo, I don’t understand your point. The chart is of total to date. If the data is wrong take it up with Tradingview. I'm not responsible for the truth of the data in the chart. Turning total to date into a daily rate would create 'unbelievable' rates. The rate per day would always increase, unless the pandemic was fully stopped.
sparo
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@Captain_Walker, So because the data suits you don't question it? Or try to apply any logic? And you're worried about lamestream media peddling lies?
Captain_Walker
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Your questions above appear to be rhetorical. I agree that the data should be questioned. Your words were 'Your death chart.. ' Had you said (for example), 'The Tradingview data in the chart seems incorrect because... ' I would have responded differently.
I'm not here to defend Tradingview, or take a position different to what the data says. Accuracy of data is always an important issue.
The figures I extract from Tradingview data on US deaths (total to date), between 4th Sept and 21st Sept, pan out as follows:
(21st)661000 - (4th)455000 = 206000
Averaged over 11 days: 206000/11 = 12117. So we'll take it at 11,000/day because I'm not OCD about 1117. Your mathematics is correct based on the 'not correct' data.
The issue is the accuracy of the data. Inaccurate data suits no one.
WHO data on 4th Sept showed 640,296, and on 17th Sept 663,320 total deaths to date. That's an increase of 23024 total deaths to date over the 11 days, leading to a rate of increase of 'total deaths to date' of 2093/d over the 11 days. covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us
You could have pointed out the same, without references to 'me' and the rhetoric about what 'suits you'.
I will take WHO data as more reliable than Tradingview. Therefore I conclude that the Tradingview data is wrong, as you rightly pointed out.
The Tradigview inaccurate data in the chart therefore exaggerates the rate of increase of total deaths to date between 4th and 17th Sept.
Correcting the data leaves the same picture - albeit less exaggerated by erroneous data - that:
1. total daily deaths to date, are increasing in the US. (At 8th October WHO data is 703,599 total deaths to date in the US).
2. there is no plateau, which would indicate winning the 'war on COVID'.
3. the rhetoric of lamestream media collectively with few exceptions (reporting what political figures say) that the war on COIVD in the US is being won, is wrong.
4. the US is showing no signs of winning the war on COVID based only on reliable data of total deaths to date.