IvanLabrie
Short

Copper, AUDUSD and USDCLP: intermediate term top in place

FX:COPPER   Copper
7 months ago
We can look for shorts (in the case of AUDUSD             might be better for wait to enter on a retracement) in these instruments.
It's evident we have failed to break resistance in AUDUSD             and that USDCLP             is forming a nice turn at the lows in the daily, which nicely correlates to Copper             forming a double top here, with plenty of downside to be seen.

Clearly, bears are involved and we can take a nice position at market, with stops 1 tick above 2.301 ideally.
Today's price action justifies assuming AUDUSD             and its crosses have reversed for the time being, at least in the intermediate term, and it's safe to fade the recent advances in them.

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Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
7 months ago
Comment: Good progress.
7 months ago
Comment: Need a new low asap, Closing as an inside bar would make me wary of shorting copper here.
7 months ago
Comment: Waiting for the daily close, I bailed from audusd shorts.
7 months ago
Trade closed manually: Since we didn't have a new low yesterday on close, this trade was invalidated as I mentioned.
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AlexC
7 months ago
You may be right Ivan. USDJPY is going South today. That could explain why the down side of Copper yesterday.
A double top would mean having a TP is 1.98, and that also means breaking a weekly scale support thread line.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO AlexC
7 months ago
Yes, if you noticed I posted a long bonds thread anticipating this risk off event.
I had some usdjpy longs sadly but I flipped short after getting stopped. We have to take our chances and hedge or exposure it disable.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
7 months ago
Our exposure if doable*
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AlexC IvanLabrie
7 months ago
Yeah. USDJPY is the bitch of the day :-)
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IvanLabrie PRO AlexC
7 months ago
I covered my short near today's low. Looking to reshort if viable but need to see the daily close.
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Trendhopper PRO
7 months ago
A bit too risky for me, reasons-

Copper is already oversold and very cheap
This could be a 3rd bull wave, confirmation when it breaks 2.3 (likely to retest 2.3 in my opinion)
+1 Reply
Trendhopper PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
Oh and there is also a bottom head and shoulders in place, so it looks very bullish medium/long term...
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
Yes long term I think we can expect a general risk on really this year on the back of a dovish fed and copper uptrend but right now it will correct said downtrend. I'll sort but not expecting new lows in aud or copper.
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AlexC IvanLabrie
7 months ago
snapshot


It could be a symmetrical triangle as well.
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IvanLabrie PRO AlexC
7 months ago
I'm not a pattern guy. I trade what I see now, and now I see a short. If it stops and gives me reason to long I'll flip long.
It could form a 'triangle' like consolidation, I doubt we see new lows.
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AlexC IvanLabrie
7 months ago
Indeed. I see a V top at the moment. As for my triangle theory, based on your time mode analysis, will you be able to estimate the time of breakout? Thanks,
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IvanLabrie PRO AlexC
7 months ago
Not 100%.
I can estimate the direction of each leg, once we have reason to suspect the triangle would break up, we'd have a convincing long setup, time and price target. But not yet, no.
+1 Reply
AlexC IvanLabrie
7 months ago
Interesting. Thanks. Looking forward to your update if this happens.
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Trendhopper PRO AlexC
7 months ago
We have seen 5 wave bulls in gold and platinum this year, a 3 wave bull in oil now, copper will break into 3 wave at the end of consolidation/symmetrical triangle in my opinion, oil and stocks are going up and will drag copper up with them....
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Trendhopper PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
Great spot on the symmetrical triangle!!
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AlexC IvanLabrie
7 months ago
snapshot


Not sure if the technicals are correct. If yes, the double top theory is correct. Thanks,
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Trendhopper PRO AlexC
7 months ago
://www.tradingview.com/chart/COPPER/3OaBJ8hK-COPPER-ABOUT-TO-GO-ON-A-3RD-WAVE-BULL-RUN/
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Trendhopper PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
Oops...heres my idea on this.....market sentiment suggests otherwise
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Trendhopper PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
 
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IvanLabrie PRO Trendhopper
7 months ago
This copper chart really doesn't work well in lower timeframes due to liquidity I guess.
The futures feeds might be better.
Anyway, I really don't want to even try counting waves, since I know how complex it is, and I don't need it to trade with the tools I use. Too prone to subjective error to be honest. Are you familiar with Neowave?
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Trendhopper PRO IvanLabrie
7 months ago
NO I just follow ElliotWave....looks like its about to breakout, good volume
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AlexC
6 months ago
Are you guys still calling short on copper?
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IvanLabrie PRO AlexC
6 months ago
Hi, this would be a good exit if short. It'd be increasingly hard to just break down and go lower.
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NickCoulby PRO
6 months ago
This is art
+1 Reply
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