I know the inflation trade has been discussed and is possibly over, but CORN has been consolidating with higher lows and lower highs. If the trade is not over we could see a breakout to 780$. This is a hedge trade, corn has a lot of moving parts and the three biggest right now being demand for livestock, ethanol blending, and droughts. If traffic is picking up and I think it will this summer on a WoW basis, if we see beef prices hit some serious highs, and lastly if we see some serious midwest droughts which we currently are.... This could be a mother of a trade. Hedge accordingly with this trade. I would use $corn calls at the money and hedge 0.5% of account
Trade active:
inflation at first dropped off with respect to $corn, but then made a recovery over 2022. We have a supply chain issue starting with the slack in the corn supply management tightening. The extra ethanol fuel blending and biodiesel brought forward by the Biden government and the EM countries banning grain exports could prove for a crazy end to this year? Either that or the continued rate hikes break all demand... I just have my doubts the hike break this system here.
Comment:
They are hiking aggressively, which has caught a lot offside.