NaughtyPines

THE WEEK AHEAD: EWZ, EWW, CPB, BOX

NYSE:CPB   CAMPBELL SOUP CO
This week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... .

CPB:

Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that a bullish assumption directional would be the way to go, with the most straightforward strategy being via short put. Pictured here is a "Wheel of Fortune," at-the-money short put that's paying 1.85 at the mid with a break even of 36.15. The basic strategy is to take the short put all the way to expiry and, if assigned, proceed to cover at or above your cost basis and work it as you would any covered call. Naturally, if price finishes above 38, you walk away with the entire premium.

Variations: 30 delta short put: Aug 17th 36, 1. 05 credit at the mid, 34.95 break even.

EWZ:

The Brazil exchange-traded fund has absolutely been crushed, with price within 5% of its 52-week low. With a rank of 50 and background at 35, here's another play where you've got weakness coupled with volatility , so a bullish assumption play makes the most sense.

The Aug 17th 32 "Wheel of Fortune" pays 1.65 with a break even of 30.35; the Aug 17th 30 delta short at the 30 strike, .87 with a break even of 29.13.

EWW:

If you're already in Brazil, EWW (rank 65/implied 27) is also at the bottom of a fairly long term range between 43 and 56. Wheel of Fortune: Aug 17th 46 short put: 1.75 at the mid, 44.25 break even; 30-delta: Aug 17th 44, .98 credit, break even at 43.02.

BOX:

With earnings 25 days in the rear view mirror and high rank and implied (76/53), I'd probably opt for a Plain Jane nondirectional: the Aug 17th 24/32 is paying 1.78 with a 69% probability of profit, break evens at 22.22/33.78 (wide of the expected on both sides), delta of .72, and theta of 3.34. Defined risk variation: Aug 17th 22/25/31/34 iron condor is paying 1.26 (I had to bring in both sides a smidge because the highest strike in Aug expiry is currently at 34 ... ).

OTHER ACTIVE ALERTS:

TLT , short on retrace at 122 (downward skip month put diagonal; horizontal resistance) or TBT , long on retrace at 36 (upward skip month call diagonal; horizontal support).
XOP , short on retrace at 44.50 (downward skip month put diagonal; top of range).

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