CPIAUCSL

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (USA Inflation)

 

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timwest timwest PRO SPX500/CPIAUCSL, W, 24 days ago
SPX500/CPIAUCSL: A REVIEW OF THE 1980 POTUS ELECTION, BEFORE & AFTER
660 7 30
SPX500/CPIAUCSL, W
A REVIEW OF THE 1980 POTUS ELECTION, BEFORE & AFTER

Inflation: Inflation matters. Why? Look at the two charts here and you will see why inflation matters. Over time, inflation changes the "real price" of the things we buy by dramatic amounts. What everyone saw in 1980's Presidential Election was a big breakout in price above the major top extending back a decade. What really had happened though over the previous ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO DXY*CPIAUCSL, W, 3 months ago
DXY*CPIAUCSL: Post-election returns pattern from 1996
612 7 23
DXY*CPIAUCSL, W
Post-election returns pattern from 1996

We have an interesting pattern, going back to the 1996 elections. I overlay the one year inflation adjusted returns of the dollar, S&P500, gold and 30 year treasury yields. I see some paralells regarding price action, and would be interesting to see if we get a similar situation going forward. This is just an observation and what I think is likely to happen based ...

mouadbahi mouadbahi PRO XAUUSD/CPIAUCSL, W, Short , 8 months ago
XAUUSD/CPIAUCSL: Inflation adjusted Gold Price Chart
181 0 5
XAUUSD/CPIAUCSL, W Short
Inflation adjusted Gold Price Chart

The weekly logarithmic chart showing that the inflation adjusted price of gold has tested a resistance trendline after the announcement of Brexit referendum results. Also, there is RSI divergence.

timwest timwest PRO DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M, a year ago
DOWI/CPIAUCSL: What happens after a new Fed Chairperson takes office?
761 3 20
DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M
What happens after a new Fed Chairperson takes office?

80% of the time stock prices fall (after inflation) after more than 5 years! I posted this chart a year ago. See links below. It looks as if we are right in the thick of all of the other "tracer" lines, which are simply a copy of the stock market action after each Federal Reserve Chairperson took office until they resigned. You can zoom out and see all of ...

magik magik PRO DJY0/CPIAUCSL, 4M, a year ago
DJY0/CPIAUCSL: CPI adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1948
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DJY0/CPIAUCSL, 4M
CPI adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1948

Long term view of the dow since the post war boom adjusted for consumer prices. Symbol: DJY0 / CPIAUCSL

timwest timwest PRO SPY/CPIAUCSL, M, a year ago
SPY/CPIAUCSL: SPY reduced by CPI - shows NO NEW HIGH
1152 6 21
SPY/CPIAUCSL, M
SPY reduced by CPI - shows NO NEW HIGH

Apart from a catchy rhyme - the S&P500 has not bested its peak level, when using the SPY, or the investible index of the S&P500. That's quite a non-return over 15 years. Zero return despite two massive losing streaks of 48% and 53% (using only monthly closes in the calculation). Granted, this doesn't include dividends paid out on SPY, which has been roughly ...

YaKa YaKa PRO SB1!/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
SB1!/CPIAUCSL: Sugar Adjusted by inflation.
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SB1!/CPIAUCSL, M
Sugar Adjusted by inflation.

Conclusion: - buy 10.40 in the next few weeks if provided, there shall be rebound. - the worst case bottom may be as low as 7.50 in 2016. - Strong USD, Large production, weak BRL, Weak demand.. created a trend that will reverse somewhere in the next 12 months. 1) overall we are close to a bottom. 2) in time too after a 5 years correction. 3) if the market falls ...

YaKa YaKa PRO SB1!/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
SB1!/CPIAUCSL: Sugar Adjusted for Inflation
45 0 0
SB1!/CPIAUCSL, M
Sugar Adjusted for Inflation

Overall we are in the lowest percentile. Now 12.50. The Range in the last 50 years has been between 1.3 usd and 66 usd. Inflation adjusted the lowest point would not have been in the 60's but rather the at the 1999 low of 4.39. From here, every dollar has huge % percentage impact. Sugar would find a rock bottom support around 50% lower in the 6.00/4.00 ...

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes CPIAUCSL, D, 2 years ago
CPIAUCSL: QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.
90 0 3
CPIAUCSL, D
QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.

To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by ...

YaKa YaKa PRO SPX/CPIAUCSL, W, 2 years ago
SPX/CPIAUCSL: Comparison 82/87 and 09/15 (inflation adjusted)
128 1 3
SPX/CPIAUCSL, W
Comparison 82/87 and 09/15 (inflation adjusted)

SPX has now achieved the same progress. This time: - It took one more year. - the speed was initially higher but is more reasonable since 2013. - Clearly something very strong/fast occurred in 1986 (with increased speed) - the contrary seems to be occurring since 2014 For me the big trap is if the top line ends being broken for a 1 year acceleration up.

timwest timwest PRO DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M, Short , 2 years ago
DOWI/CPIAUCSL: Dow Jones Industrials - Monthly - Fed Chairman Pattern
364 1 6
DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M Short
Dow Jones Industrials - Monthly - Fed Chairman Pattern

4 out of 5 times the market is down (after inflation, not counting dividends) 71 months after a changeover at the Fed. We are approaching the best performance for the stock market where there is minimal upside potential and maximum downside risk. The odds are stacking up that the future will not be as rosy as the past based on the historical performance of this ...

AynCzubas AynCzubas SPX500/CPIAUCSL, M, Short , 2 years ago
SPX500/CPIAUCSL: S&P is Still Below Year 2000 Peak in Inflation-adjusted Terms
234 4 3
SPX500/CPIAUCSL, M Short
S&P is Still Below Year 2000 Peak in Inflation-adjusted Terms

If we look at the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 (S&P denominated by the Consumer Price Index), it indicates that if we disregard the inflationary decay in the domestic purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar from then until now, then the S&P has still not reached a new high since the year 2000. In Elliott Wave terms, the price action of the U.S. equities markets since ...

timwest timwest PRO DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
DOWI/CPIAUCSL: Fed Chairman Stock Market Pattern: 80% chance of...
607 8 11
DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M
Fed Chairman Stock Market Pattern: 80% chance of...

I published the long term chart of the markets under the Fed Chairman back to McCabe in the late 1940's under Truman. With the power of TradingView tools, we can put together a visual display like this quite easily. Curious to see if this inspires any of you to find other patterns in the markets. It looks like markets were lower in 4 out of 5 instances (80% ...

timwest timwest PRO DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
DOWI/CPIAUCSL: Fed Chairman Graph -Inflation Adjusted 1948-Present
467 0 13
DOWI/CPIAUCSL, M
Fed Chairman Graph -Inflation Adjusted 1948-Present

Do you see any patterns? I will always remember Alan Greenspan coming into office at the high of the market and the stock market crash of 40% in the following 3 months (2722 down to 1600 from August 25 to October 19, 1987). Bernanke had a quick burst up before the credit market meltdown in 2007-2009. Tim Feb 9, 2015 1:45AM EST

YaKa YaKa PRO SPX500/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
SPX500/CPIAUCSL: SP500 - Big Picture Adjusted by Inflatio
170 0 4
SPX500/CPIAUCSL, M
SP500 - Big Picture Adjusted by Inflatio

- At current level, adjusted by inflation, SP500 made no progress since year 2000. - Maybe the price exuberance of 2000 needed to be matched with more reasonable earnings multiples. - This potentially a TOP (although all candidates do not end up being one)

YaKa YaKa PRO SB1!/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
SB1!/CPIAUCSL: Sugar Adjusted by Inflation - Hidden Support
39 1 2
SB1!/CPIAUCSL, M
Sugar Adjusted by Inflation - Hidden Support

Sugar is a great buy between 14 and 12. From 14 it can freely (not necessarily easily) move down to 12... Trade: buy 5% at 12.50

kocurekc kocurekc CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
CPIAUCSL: Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't care
50 0 3
CPIAUCSL, M
Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't care

I was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years ...

timwest timwest PRO SPX/CPIAUCSL, M, 2 years ago
SPX/CPIAUCSL: S&P500 -SPX - Adjusted for Inflation -Only 4.5% below ATH
525 12 16
SPX/CPIAUCSL, M
S&P500 -SPX - Adjusted for Inflation -Only 4.5% below ATH

Here is the S&P500 adjusted by the CPI All Urban Consumers Index. The S&P500 sits just 4.56% below the All-Time-High. This is an interesting "return" (no dividends are included in this analysis) for 15 years invested in the market and exposed to all of the price risk. Of course, if you take zero-risk you would expect to earn zero return. You can see why the ...

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