QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.
To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective.
Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by effectively perma QEing. Bernanke argues fairly convincingly, however only in theory, that in the face of deflation the Fed MUST at all costs pump the economy. A deflationary trap is the death of economies and empires.
As I am almost fully invested to the downside, I am looking for the Fed to increase interest rates. Therefore, the move away from "patience" is a good thing, or is it?
The Fed's focus was employment. Now that the US is arguably fully employed and ready to benefit from increasing wages, it was ready for the rate increase, only to be stifled by the USD and sluggish inflation.
So what does the Fed do? The focus on employment has now been moved to deflationary worries. For now the Fed says it sees it as transitory, but the focus communicated to the market is committed. Hence, my worry! Every HFT algo, hedge fund and it's pet dog will be looking at inflation with the scrutiny it did with employment.
As seen in the chart, the last three times inflation had a flat or decreasing cycle, the Fed QEed. What's happening with inflation now? What did Bernanke say about deflation? Remember, the Fed does not use QE to prop the market, it uses QE to arguably inflate the economy.
Now for my conspiracy. Equities will drop in the medium term pulling in every bear, her cubs and all the forest animals. If I owned the market, I would force a move quickly breaking Oct 14 lows, because the Fed will have to act on deflation soon, if not transitory. Smart money buys only for the Fed to have a justifiable reason to QE4 the hell out of us, "deflationary pressures are worrying, we have to act decisively". The Fed has been promising increased interest rates for years, but oligarchs want another capital/income boost. Once QE4 is announced markets will "reach for the sky", as Buzz Light-Year put it.
Bears should fear QE4, but ride it while it lasts, if it gets here that is :-)
Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by effectively perma QEing. Bernanke argues fairly convincingly, however only in theory, that in the face of deflation the Fed MUST at all costs pump the economy. A deflationary trap is the death of economies and empires.
As I am almost fully invested to the downside, I am looking for the Fed to increase interest rates. Therefore, the move away from "patience" is a good thing, or is it?
The Fed's focus was employment. Now that the US is arguably fully employed and ready to benefit from increasing wages, it was ready for the rate increase, only to be stifled by the USD and sluggish inflation.
So what does the Fed do? The focus on employment has now been moved to deflationary worries. For now the Fed says it sees it as transitory, but the focus communicated to the market is committed. Hence, my worry! Every HFT algo, hedge fund and it's pet dog will be looking at inflation with the scrutiny it did with employment.
As seen in the chart, the last three times inflation had a flat or decreasing cycle, the Fed QEed. What's happening with inflation now? What did Bernanke say about deflation? Remember, the Fed does not use QE to prop the market, it uses QE to arguably inflate the economy.
Now for my conspiracy. Equities will drop in the medium term pulling in every bear, her cubs and all the forest animals. If I owned the market, I would force a move quickly breaking Oct 14 lows, because the Fed will have to act on deflation soon, if not transitory. Smart money buys only for the Fed to have a justifiable reason to QE4 the hell out of us, "deflationary pressures are worrying, we have to act decisively". The Fed has been promising increased interest rates for years, but oligarchs want another capital/income boost. Once QE4 is announced markets will "reach for the sky", as Buzz Light-Year put it.
Bears should fear QE4, but ride it while it lasts, if it gets here that is :-)