Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Energy in U.S. City AverageFRED
Description
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Idea for Macro: - Just as the Fed shifts their narrative from "transitory" to "persistent" inflation... - November saw crude oil with a 6 sigma move to the downside. Oil is inflation. - Eurodollar futures curve inverted from 2024-2026.
Next CPI print will be a bewildering miss, and by January's (December) print, the deflationary fears will start to settle, but it will be too late to take off risk at that point.
"There are occasions when the bias affects not only market prices but also the so-called fundamentals. This is when reflexivity becomes important." - George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance
"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer