Waiting for pattern to complete or $4.62 to enter long
Trade Entry All bearish options entries are poor risk/reward. $140 risk for $30 reward. I would prefer waiting until bottom to buy shares or long calls. The other alternative is to short CRON. Break of current bearish banana pattern to bullish is low probability IMO here. Curve of pattern is midway. Will re-post if entry presents.
Chart Details Price running inside the current banana/shoe pattern. Very small gap fill at yellow dash line. Price alert set at $5 to prepare for entry at end of pattern.
About Me Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. I am transitioning to my new website moneypatterns.com and have updated my name previously jbird7839. Same guy - new name. :) Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish
Never heard of a banana pattern before! But let me try to take the rest seriously. 4.62 is not realistic. It is far below book value. Without the Altria money, sure... but that won't happen as long as they have 2 billion in the bank. The lowest it will go would be 5.50, which is the bottom of the fourth wave from the last cycle. It is at the end of an ABC deep reset. These usually retrace down to the start of the fourth wave.
MoneyPatterns
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@cvachon, $5.50 is realistic. That would be in line with previous around $5.70.
I agree with wave count. I disagree that "book value" has anything to do with the current market. Things are whacked out, but I get your point. :)
The main reason why I see the $4.62 is because of the gap fill, but there are other unfilled gaps below which may never get filled.
Maybe I will move my alert up to $5.50. Either way, this would be a good long entry with low risk.
Thank you very much for commenting and giving a valid opinion with logic backup.
I appreciate you taking the time.
kuriosly
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What do you think the chances of this converting into a banana peel pattern on the rebound? I'm thinking about a $7 target once the peel comes off.
MoneyPatterns
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@kuriosly, Looks like we crossed the 10WeekMA and got the Bullish EMA cross on Jan. 13.
Price broke pattern on Jan. 14. This confirms bullish trend now.
But, for it to continue without a banana peel as you call it, price would need a Bullish EMA Cross on the Weekly view (to me looks like above $9.50 around Feb. 3 week)
So if you are asking to short, I would be careful here.
If you are looking to long, I would place your $7 orders scattered ($7.10, $7.35, etc) so you get fills and try extended market orders as well.
Hope this helps. Let me know if you need other info.
Also thank you VERY much for commenting, asking a question, and making a pun on the pattern. Nice! :)
The_Real_AMF
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Hahaha, love the new pattern you have identified!!
MoneyPatterns
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@The_Real_AMF, Thanks and thank you for commenting.
I see the banana pattern (or shoe some call it) often in down-trending tickers.
CRON and many of the VIX tickers (VIXY, UVXY, TVIX) and inverse tickers like SPXS have same banana pattern.
Using VIXY as an example below, we see this repeatedly. Which tells me - CRON is more likely to go down than up at this time.
Banana is good for judging entry after banana fills half way.
Again - thanks for commenting since this helps everyone. Gets my brain going. :)