I just want to have this publish as a record either to prove that I was right or I was wrong in 2025 (yikes, another 3 years haha). This publication is another shrill post...yes sorry, but hear me out.
I have been through 2 crypto cycles: 2014 - btc fell to $200. 2018 - btc fell to 3,000. (I didnt count COVID dump that was a black swan event) If I were to count this drop as another cycle then it would have been 3 crypto cycles. Yet again, btc fell to ???. We dont know yet, the dust has not settle.
I used BTC as reference because it doesn't matter which coin it is with XYZ promises. It doesn't matter. There hasn't been any coin that decoupled from BTC. Only stable coin decouple from BTC (obviously).
I choose CRO over any other coins to shrill because I believe in the exchange coins such as binance, kucoin, and CRO. These exchange coins has tangible value, if you will. If the exchange grow, then the coin price typically increase, and they can't just rug pull like other alt coins.
Previously, I placed my money on binance which was a good purchased, too bad I sold it too early. I was too short slighted. I never ever thought BNB could get to 300 or even 600! and the legal issue with binance exchange. I didnt want to use VPN anymore and at a risk to get lock out. I bought BNB when it was $0.6 in 2017...and I had thousands of those coins, looking back at my old screen shots makes me sad. I also had a bunch of ADA, I abandon that coin during the crypto winter.
Now, I think CRO might have a shot just like binance did in 2017. Let's look at some numbers - if CRO has 20B which it had achieved earlier this year, then it would worth $1. if it has 50B, then $3 if it has 100B, then $5 (this was achieved by BNB and ADA during the 2021 peak). Therefore I think that it is possible that CRO might have a shot.
So what does this mean? These prices are reference of how much CRO a person needs to accumulate, before CRO hits these price Let's use $1 Million as a reference - if I accumulate 1,000,000 CRO then when it reach $1 I will have $1 million. (Simple math) If I accumulate 333,333 CRO then when it reach $3 I will have $1 million. 200,000 CRO when it reach $5 I will have $1 million
As of now, 200,000 CRO = $20,000 @ 0.1/CRO, 333,333 CRO = $33,333, etc... Yes, that is a low end toyota.
The market is bleeding right now... its bad, but it is also a good time to accumulate CRO or other coins you believe in. If it goes lower, then I'll buy more until I reach my targets. Based on how CRO is advising themselves, I think $5 is achievable, especially if the market continue to expand over the years - new funds are entering the market, old money return to the market. The market cap continues to grow. I remember watching BOXMINING on YouTube and he was excited when total market cap reach 700B in 2017, to date that number is so much smaller.
Good luck and trade responsibly
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BTW my accumulation price is anything less than $0.11. If the price is above 0.11, then not going to buy.
Currently, my DCA price is 0.137 to break even.
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Still DCA. Breakeven price $0.121
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Breakeven price $0.098. Either we become a millionaire or we FTX'ed. Personal target reached! Wake me up in 2025. Unless we FTX'ed.
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Got a cool little bonus, added more CRO to the bag. Breakeven Price $0.090.
Just additional thoughts. After the failure of FTX and other catastrophic events, there are a few major US crypto exchanges standing and among them is Crypto.com, which means that the FTX customers will need another platform to fulfil their needs. It's possible that there will be a new wave of customers for crypto.com in the near future. It would be interesting to see what will happen.
As long as the company doesn't go belly up, I see bright future for the company and CRO...Still, CRO is a high risk- high reward class asset. Trade responsibly and don't spend money you don't have.
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Haven't update for awhile Breakeven price $0.078 Bought a decent amount over September and October. At this point, I am way over my personal goal. Just couldn't resist the ~0.05s, at this price it had significantly brough down my breakeven price. Finally starting to see some green after a long period of red.
I like to see your long term vision and thanks for your work!
The parabola price seems very reasonable, if CDT thrives, grows and attracts more customers and exchange fees etc...
I am not sure if the depressed stage would last so long given how things are going, I think we could easily get to 0.3-5 already this year, but of course it will depend on what's in store for BTC and the rest of the market... but who knows, of course better have lower expectations and be nicely surprised...
One can keep part of the funds in defi, so not directly vulnerable to CDC as a third party, but of course if the main company failed, the chain would not be worth much ;)))
Last point: I know that goes beyond the scope of your description, but since you use the specific example numbers, it's worth mentioning that one can stake CRO in a non-custodial wallet at 10% pa (this year, it may go down) which allows to add to the DCA... so with a 3 year time-frame, 100k today, even without further additions might be close to 130k times the price at the time...
CptGucci
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@adamicius, Thank you for the comment and a helpful remark on CRO staking. This post is my long term vision for CRO. For alt coin investment, I keep my investment relatively short 3 to 5 yrs long unlike the other class of assets and only focus on one that has low speculation value. Alt coins are too volatile to hold a large amount for too long. I anticipate that the "crypto winter" will last for awhile until the next bitcoin halving in March 2024, but who knows. I think that this would be likely the case because of the 2 catastrophic events recently. The psychological damage was delt to the investors and the market, and the media painted crypto market in a negative light. All of these things need time to heal and return back to normal before a bull run. It it noteworthy that the effect of SVB and Silvergate failure on crypto market was minimal. 2 largest US crypto friendly banks failed and yet the market did not plummet. There was a decline but the market didn't dive, and this may indicate that we might hit the bottom/strong support. Now we just have to wait which is honestly the hardest part to do for investment. However, if CRO get to my target price faster than 2025, then I wouldn't mind at all.
ErnieS
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Entertaining way of writing haha. Love the idea and what you are up to. I think you might be right about growing, but I have no idea if it will be the figures you write. I keep my fingers crossed for you….also for not getting FTX’ ed :-)
CptGucci
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@ErnieS, I can't tell if you are complementing my writing or a giving me a backhanded comment, but I'm glad you like the idea haha. Only time will tell if I'm right or wrote. We'll see in 2025.
@connor85950, thank you for reading and the input. You're right it could go below 10c as anything could happen. I'm just willing to pay 10-11c for each CRO because I think that the fair price is about 16-17c and CRO price undershoot the longterm trend line right now (That's why my DCA is higher I got a small portion at 16c, I was impatience). So if CRO goes below 10c, then that's great more CRO and lower my average, however I think it will be difficult for the price to go lower than 10c. If we look at the price as percent of change from 11c (since it is my highest accumulation target price), 9c CRO would equal to 20% decrease, 8c = 37% decrease and so on 5c = 60% decrease. The decrease of CRO price will largely depends on BTC. Do you think BTC will drop another 20%? As of now, BTC price is at 200MA support and historically it is a strong support, which always atrract BTC back to this support. So I think it's unlikely for BTC to drop another 20% to 16K, unless there is a severe negative event. But if it does, I'm ready to buy more. It will accomplish my goals for each purchase, which are to accumulate more and lower my purchase average.
Based on my experience with trading, it found it is difficult to buy near your best target price, and in this case I think best CRO price is 9c based on the previous support. If the price is appealing to you it is likely to be appealing to other trader as well. So if your limit orders were placed late, then there is a higher chance for your order will not get fill and miss the opportunity. There were several trains I've missed in both stocks and crypto because I was greedy haha and I wanted to buy at my the best price. This is also an indicator that the TA was good, because it is competing with legit traders. Personally, I'm willing to pay a slight premium more so my order get filled, just too break away from the crowd and reduce anxiety.
adamicius
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@connor85950, having a card and being able to pay with crypto without having to deal with potentially crypto unfriendly banks is also a perk (many of them block transactions from exchanges etc)
p0westy0
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I love CRO, and crypto.com was the first exchange I ever used in 2019, and I'm such a huge advocate of them that I've been a jade crypto.com card holder for the last 4 years by staking a big chunk of CRO which was locked in for 6 months just to get the card, because crypto.com are the safe and least risk compared to every other crypto exchange there is, while coinbase, binance, kucoin and the rest of the exchanges were playing fast and loose with everyone's money by listing rug pulls and scam coins on a daily basis just to grow their profits and trading volume, crypto.com have been going by the book and taking the slow and safe approach without cutting corners, they're the only exchange that hasn't had a slap on the wrist or under investigation from the SEC, that is the ground works for a company which is staying around for a long time, CRO and crypto.com is very new compared to the other major exchanges, but they haven't got anything to make people buy and hold CRO so that's the only reason the price of CRO is so cheap and will never reach the value that BNB has achieved until they give more utility for CRO, the only reason to buy and hold CRO is for staking to get visa card benefits or earn a a % from staking which is very low yield
The parabola price seems very reasonable, if CDT thrives, grows and attracts more customers and exchange fees etc...
I am not sure if the depressed stage would last so long given how things are going, I think we could easily get to 0.3-5 already this year, but of course it will depend on what's in store for BTC and the rest of the market... but who knows, of course better have lower expectations and be nicely surprised...
One can keep part of the funds in defi, so not directly vulnerable to CDC as a third party, but of course if the main company failed, the chain would not be worth much ;)))
Last point: I know that goes beyond the scope of your description, but since you use the specific example numbers, it's worth mentioning that one can stake CRO in a non-custodial wallet at 10% pa (this year, it may go down) which allows to add to the DCA... so with a 3 year time-frame, 100k today, even without further additions might be close to 130k times the price at the time...