Please bear with me (or bull with me in a year) as I am new to this. I am new to investing and have been following biotech IPOs recently. I am just starting to learn technical analysis so I will have to update this later when there is more data to analyze and when I learn how to do that. Also disclaimer: I have an MD background but do not have any stake in this company yet.
All information contained in this post about the company is available on the company site.
GAIN trial: 500 subjects, each studied for 4 months, enrolling right now. This likely will not be published until Late 2019 at the very earliest based off of my experience in medical research as an MD. My optimistic guess is by mid 2020 it will be submitted, published mid to late 2020. If there are serious drug complications this would likely push back their timeline, but if things go extremely well its not unheard of to stop the blinding and begin treating everyone with the study drug (this would be a sign to me to buy like its going out of style.) After they prepare and submit a NDA, the FDA has 60 days to review it. I think the earliest this drug hits the market if it goes through is 2021.
The premise of the drug is based off of a newly demonstrated theory on the nature of Alzheimer's disease. According to the Texas Department of Health and Human services, 5.8 million Americans have Alzheimers. This represents the current American market. With an aging boomer population the incidence and prevalence will likely increase. Sciences Advances Jan 2019 "porphyromonas gingivalis in Alzheimer's brains: Evidence..." convinced me that amyloidosis is a result of bacterial colonization of the brain in older people, and Dr. Moir and Dr. Tanzi of Mass General posted similarly on AlzForum. Cor388 is the only gingipain inhibitor being developed that I could find online.
So they have the only drug in development, its in phase 2/3 right now. Reuters on success rates for study drugs - basically the problem is that Phase 2 results predict phase 3 and FDA approval, and we only have phase 1 info. Its still risky, but I think the upside of having a monopoly on a new class of drug is high enough to warrant the risk. If they show this drug can improve rather than just slow the progression of Alzheimer's, they will have a drug that does something that no other Alzheimer's treatment has ever done before. -That is why this is a potential unicorn.- The effect on public AND market psychology would be astounding.
That being said, after the new IPO hype wears off and we get some quarterly loss reports, price will likely drop BEFORE drug trial results come out, and if they're good (as I expect them to be) we should see either a bubble form or a rocket ship take off. Pre-phase 2/3 results represents my best window for entry for a long term investment.
All information contained in this post about the company is available on the company site.
GAIN trial: 500 subjects, each studied for 4 months, enrolling right now. This likely will not be published until Late 2019 at the very earliest based off of my experience in medical research as an MD. My optimistic guess is by mid 2020 it will be submitted, published mid to late 2020. If there are serious drug complications this would likely push back their timeline, but if things go extremely well its not unheard of to stop the blinding and begin treating everyone with the study drug (this would be a sign to me to buy like its going out of style.) After they prepare and submit a NDA, the FDA has 60 days to review it. I think the earliest this drug hits the market if it goes through is 2021.
The premise of the drug is based off of a newly demonstrated theory on the nature of Alzheimer's disease. According to the Texas Department of Health and Human services, 5.8 million Americans have Alzheimers. This represents the current American market. With an aging boomer population the incidence and prevalence will likely increase. Sciences Advances Jan 2019 "porphyromonas gingivalis in Alzheimer's brains: Evidence..." convinced me that amyloidosis is a result of bacterial colonization of the brain in older people, and Dr. Moir and Dr. Tanzi of Mass General posted similarly on AlzForum. Cor388 is the only gingipain inhibitor being developed that I could find online.
So they have the only drug in development, its in phase 2/3 right now. Reuters on success rates for study drugs - basically the problem is that Phase 2 results predict phase 3 and FDA approval, and we only have phase 1 info. Its still risky, but I think the upside of having a monopoly on a new class of drug is high enough to warrant the risk. If they show this drug can improve rather than just slow the progression of Alzheimer's, they will have a drug that does something that no other Alzheimer's treatment has ever done before. -That is why this is a potential unicorn.- The effect on public AND market psychology would be astounding.
That being said, after the new IPO hype wears off and we get some quarterly loss reports, price will likely drop BEFORE drug trial results come out, and if they're good (as I expect them to be) we should see either a bubble form or a rocket ship take off. Pre-phase 2/3 results represents my best window for entry for a long term investment.
Comment:
june 11 conference presentation, market overreaction $26->42$ and climbing. Phase 2/3 trials not even close to complete
Trade active:
10.27 Million shares float. High emotion stock potential alzheimer's cure. Buy now wait for interval results. Going to the moon with this unicorn.