Curve has primarily been within a parallel downtrend on its logarithmic chart (3 day chart shown here). It broke above that channel and moved nearly a channels width above it, before breaking back down into the same trend. Often when we see a strong channel breakout that eventually falls back into the channel, crypto charts have a tendency to test a breakout on the opposite end. I've drawn channels of equal length above and below to illustrate this.
I'm expecting there is a decent chance this occurs again here, where we break down below the channel and move nearly a channels width below. This would put us in the same range as Curve's ATL vs. Bitcoin, and could stop there or move closer towards the full length of the channel, to have a slightly lower 2nd bottom on its double-bottom.
This is just an idea based on trends I've noticed in crypto. I didn't look for much confluence - but MACD is trending down and volume is still unusually low.
Should this actually happen, expect a strong move back up from the 2nd low or ATL. Short until then, long when it reaches the green box or near lower channel bottom.
Please share your thoughts on Curve vs. Bitcoin, and thanks for taking the time to read my own. I could see this happening if Bitcoin makes a strong move (in either direction)