CSX Short Based on Fundamentals Short

CSX CorporationNASDAQ

Description

⋅ Sep 2, 2019 12:53 PM

No technicals bullshit here, purely fundamental driven.

Micro

PSR is the key theme in railroads right now. Despite a lower operating ratio CSX implementing PSR isn't proving to be as effective as people think and the optimism associated has created a bubble.

Macro

Railroad data weaker YoY - Bearish - https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data/
Earnings Growth Positive - Bullish - But how can this be maintained with lower shipments and the current macro environment?
Cass Freight Index YoY - Bearish - https://public.tableau.com/views/CassFreightIndex-Shipments/CassFreightIndex-Shipments?%3Aembed=y&%3Aembed_code_version=3&%3AloadOrderID=0&%3Adisplay_count=yes&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link
Cass Freight MoM - Bearish https://public.tableau.com/views/CassFreightIndex-Shipments/CassFreightIndex-Shipments?%3Aembed=y&%3Aembed_code_version=3&%3AloadOrderID=0&%3Adisplay_count=yes&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link
Weather - Hurricane Dorian - CSX is exposed to disruption and potential disaster which would impact the stock, it carries 8% of hazardous chemicals through it's North & South Carolina states.

This stock is going lower as it's exposed as a buyback stock pump with no real growth in the past 2 years.