Head and Shoulders Top

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This week I will post two Oil             stocks ( CVX             and TSO             ), both appearing to meet the requirements for Head and Shoulder tops. You may want to put them on your watch list.
This pattern is the easiest recognized, but can turn into an Acc/Dist pattern if the classic rules are not met. Beyond the H & S pattern he first rule is an uptrend line is broken as this did in June. The most important rule is that the volume decreases from the Left shoulder to the Right shoulder using CMF             or OBV. Next the neckline breaks and then a retrace occurs to the .500 Fib. I also like to use the 200 day SMA (I first began TA after reading Joe Granvilles book and use his rules for the 200 day, (and yes I know he fell out of favour). CVX             appears to be meeting all these requirements although it may still go to the $120.00 level. I believe it needs to confirm the pattern by re-breaking the neckline. As earnings are reported on Nov 1st it may move sideways before going down.
Remember predicting a three day weather forecast is 25 times more accurate than a three day stock forecast.
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