Camping World Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of recreational vehicles (RV) and related products and services. It operates through the following segments: protecting, insuring, and promoting the RV lifestyle and RV & Outdoor Retail. CWH has a Medium STRONG quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 6) with great analyst prospects (Strong Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, CWH has a VERY GOOD dividend pay out @ 1.19 per share/year (Approximately 8.8 - 9.67% of the entry range a 13.51 - 12.30). Therefore, this CWH long play has GREAT value at the price levels from 13.51 - 12.30.
In this idea, we have a crab and bat-pattern with a smaller deep-crab recently formed in the right arm, showing us that price should reverse between 13.51 - 12.30. I expect price to have a long-term reversal within this range. I would average into this position with a 3% stop below 12.30. Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 95.4 -114% (Risk-to-Reward of 31.46) and the second target nets 160 - 185% (Risk-to-Reward of 52.68). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 148% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a deep-crab pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET Probability: 0.93 Odds: 31.46 Bankroll:$1000
Calculation: Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9278 Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $927.77
SECOND TARGET Probability: 0.93 Odds: 50.27 Bankroll:$1000
Calculation: Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.9287 Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $928.67
Therefore, one should bet approximately 92.7% - 92.8% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!
@RozaniGhani-RG, Ignore the fact that the CBC extension of 2.618 does not reach passed the 0.886 retracement level. I am measuring from the point where no significant pullbacks happen on the minor time frame for the initial move A-B of ABCD pattern in the left arm. Instead, look at how the confluence of that level measures up to a crab pattern in the body of the harmonic which is further confirmed by the deep crab harmonic in the right arm. No worries, you will see in the following weeks that I am correct. However, if I am wrong, no one will be able to enter there, so we will be able to ignore this trade idea.