The 1D chart shifted from a June–October uptrend to a sharp correction after failing at the $281 peak, printing a clear double-top. Price is now below the MA20/MA60, pressing the MA120 (~$245) with lower-band tags and heavy red candles—classic distribution. The key battleground sits at the $238 support (confluence of MA120 and prior September base). Bulls need a stabilizing bounce here to avoid handing momentum fully to the sellers.
Primary path: a daily close below $238 confirms bearish continuation, completing the double-top (neckline $248–$250) and exposing $220–$225 next, with extension risk toward $215–$210 if liquidation accelerates. If $238 holds and buyers print a strong reversal candle, look for a reclaim of $250/$260 to squeeze into the $268 pivot and possibly retest the $281 supply zone. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down.
Validation and risk: bearish confirmation is a break-and-hold below $238; bullish confirmation is a daily close back above $250 with rising volume. Near-term targets: $220–$225 on downside, $265–$268 on upside. Invalidation: for longs, a decisive daily close below $235; for shorts, a sustained reclaim of $260 that turns the MA20/MA60 from caps into support. Volatility is elevated—size positions conservatively and respect stops. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
Primary path: a daily close below $238 confirms bearish continuation, completing the double-top (neckline $248–$250) and exposing $220–$225 next, with extension risk toward $215–$210 if liquidation accelerates. If $238 holds and buyers print a strong reversal candle, look for a reclaim of $250/$260 to squeeze into the $268 pivot and possibly retest the $281 supply zone. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down.
Validation and risk: bearish confirmation is a break-and-hold below $238; bullish confirmation is a daily close back above $250 with rising volume. Near-term targets: $220–$225 on downside, $265–$268 on upside. Invalidation: for longs, a decisive daily close below $235; for shorts, a sustained reclaim of $260 that turns the MA20/MA60 from caps into support. Volatility is elevated—size positions conservatively and respect stops. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
Note
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