My training and experience leads me to see a rejection/consolidation at the orange trendline
Likewise, expect the orange trendline to be broken and then tested as support
Closing remarks
Money is:
Store of value
Divisible
Fungible
Unit of Account
Bitcoin seeks to be money with an emphasis on store of value. Other coins want to be money but don't empahsize the store of value, they focus on the the fungible/divisible aspect. These are the currency coins and when BTC slows down they will take off as a replacement currency for failing fiat. Just as the normal pattern is for Gold to move first and then silver to over-perform, BTC moves first and then the currency coins like Dash move later.
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Dashusd has mounted the midline of the bollingerband. I expect to see brief consolidation here (perhaps around 5 days) before the price action begins to bully the daily bollinger band higher up. We are coming up to target 1 which is were we would expect to see a threat of a double top, or people selling out because they see the treat of a double top.
My most optimistic target for this move is going to be on a wick above the orange trend line as shown in the monthly chart above.
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Dash continued to wind up for its next move and it is under my Target 1 zone as shown in the main chart. I was wondering why it was not moving so I pulled up a set of my favorite indicators for swing trading and set the resolution to 12 hours and we can see the price is getting compressed between the MTF Vstop set to a multiplier of 3 and the 20 period SMA. Normally I also show the normal VSTOP to dynamically chart support and resistance or double Vstop support or double VStop resistance but that isn't shown right now.
If we are in the same falling wedge fractal we should not see the 20 period SMA fail and when we get past the MTF VSTOP at 253 Dash should never return to these levels ever again.
A break of the 20 period SMA on the 12 hour, or failure to break the MTF Vstop at 253 would be a model failure of disastrous proportion for Dash's future. But we still have a few days and the news and fundamentals are positve.
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Things are progressing nicely on the trade. In the lower chart I snugged up my stops and added to my margined long position at the filled orange triangle. Target is still above 400 and optimally above 500. I still think once price action clear 255 we should begin in earnest.
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I am still holding my long position. I was hoping for a break out of an ascending triangle I drew but I left my self well-margined and it seems that was a good call.
Now looking for a W pattern / Double bottom and with this being a bull market I expect to at least being able to close for a small loss at the top of the BB if I can't get into the money. I don't see price action going to far the BB. There is still a chance the price action creates a channel and we retest 190 again after going to 240-250, which would be annoying.
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We have reached target zone 1 and I closed my long which I opened at 248, cycled my profits and re-opened that way the time on my margin trade is restarted. In the cycle we are roughly at the orange circle. Should see some massive green candles soon.
There are going to be a lot of entries and swing trades for the aggressive. But IF (and I say IF) I am right this will be one of the last couple of days you can buy dash below $300
@Mozzi111, We might be able to hit 500 but I am not sure we could hold it. I expect a lot of activity at this orange trendline and margin traders, or traders with tight stops can lose a lot of money as price action plays with the trend line as support and resistance.
Mozzi111
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@This_Guhy, Thanks for sharing. We might get a wick up near $500 and drop back down a bit like you said. I am thinking ATH will be end of April or in May. Wbu?
This_Guhy
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@Mozzi111, I think retesting ATH in April or May is a bit quick. We might be testing the orange trend line support and consolidating for up to a month. When he hit ATH on DASH last time it took about half a year to pull back and set a decisive new ATH. I am not sure it will take that long this time around. I do have some fantastically high targets for DASH on the theory that currency coins will be the darlings of hyper-inflation.
The effective Federal Funds rate is in a falling wedge. When it pumps the dollar demand to get interest is going to go sky high. There should be an astounding numbers of cash carry trades in most dollar trading pairs and every cryptocurrency which you can now get interest on is going to go bonkers. And I mean the legit cryptos and currencies, like XMR. ZEC, and Dash.
Mozzi111
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@This_Guhy, Dash consolidated for 1 year longer this cycle and since dash is lagging a lot still that means it’s due for a major breakout to ATH within a couple months. That’s just my opinion. I do think we can get to 20k end of 2021 when it peaks. It’s one cycle behind bitcoin
This_Guhy
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@Mozzi111, We kind of have to march to BTC tune and I expect this rising wedge to break to the upside in a melt up. Keep on reminding myself of that Warren Buffet quote that the stock market is a mechanism of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Mozzi111
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@This_Guhy, I agree with you on this. Bitcoin also won’t have major correction until the monthly rsi hits 95.
This_Guhy
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@Mozzi111, Dash is going to ravish most alts and the old man here soon. There may be some shitcion that pumps more than DASH but when it comes to a structure that gives a lot of upside and certainty DASH has everything I wan.t
Mozzi111
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@This_Guhy, yes, lots of potential with dash. When do u think we see over $300?
This_Guhy
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@Mozzi111, If I am correct and DASH is in a W pattern we should see 300 within days.