Background It was only little more than a month ago that I was going through some coins I don't normally look at, basically doing my due diligence, when I was struck by the market structure of Dash and now I think the history in addition to its utility as an actual crypto CURRENCY suggest it will do the best out of the old guard of crypto currencies. There may be some upstarts that might out-perform DASH but with the ability to have some chart history we can find previous significant levels and use the fib log channels to our benefit.
My linked post will show my history of bullishness on Dash and might lend credence to my claims that I have been beating money out of Dash as well as other currency coins for the last month or so and would explain my relative disinterest in platform coins like ADA, DOT, ETH and such.
Analysis The chart shows what I have identified for myself as the Crypto Fractal. Nothing goes straight up but crypto, benefiting from both adoption and quantitative easing and "money printer go brrrr" does about a good a job as we could want an asset to go straight up. From here the blue line charts a path I have seen a lot of premier coins take, like Monero, Link, And Ethereum as they retrace their bear market. Bitcoin was so unbelievable bullish that while the similarities are there if you followed that chart you would probably get surprised by the alts slow movement.
One key difference between Dash (and Monero) compared to BTC, ETH and Link is that when it came to the double bottom that defined the market that Dash and monero had lower lows on the while BTC, ETH and Link had higher lows. This means there is some SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) to how I placed my baseline anchors for the zero line on Dash. My self-training and experience tell me that I have done well based on the activity around the 0.5 and 0.236 levels have acted as support and resistance. Further that, the fact that the previous ATH is only off by a few single digit percent from the -0.236 level and the -0.382 level helps define quite well wicking on the monthly chart (not shown) gives me comfort that the fib channel extensions will be very useful.
Price Action
Moved quickly from the .236 to 0.5 Fib level
Consolidated on the 0.382 level which coincides with the bear market high
From here, the blue line charts a path were price action
Pamps to the 0.618 level, which coincides with the bear trap high
Retest the 0.5/$300 Level
Form a continuation pattern past the bear trap high
Advance to ATH
Reject and consolidate. Chart shows last time the drawback was 50%. Only strong hands need apply.
Advance to the 1.0 line, reject and consolidate
Advance to the next fib level.
Now, just incase you think this course is crazy here is BTC doing the same thing, only much faster. If you can't see the major fib levels acting as described above then you should work on that visual IQ. My assumption right now is what ever fib level BTCUSD goes to, DASHUSD will go at least one or two fib levels higher.
Here is similar analysis I did on BTC when I was 6 months younger. The TA was really good but I have advance a lot in charting and trading over those 6 months. I am within that 3-5 year timeframe of trading and charting where a lot fo things are clicking together a lot faster. It has been pretty stressful and painful at times, as well as euphoric.
Closing thoughts One of my preferred youtubers for cryptocurrency, Steve Courtney of CryptoCrewUniversity just put Dash on his top 5 altcoins set to explode. He has slipped a bit into the formulaic titling and graphic used by a lot of crypto youtubers but the man has been in the game longer than me and no doubt he has had a longer history of sucess over me. The man listed Dash as one of his most undervalued coins. Given his experience and patience he probably needed to have some more conformation than I did before he put his name on it.
To a very large extent I trust my charting, especially at longer time frames, that if he didn't mention Dash I would be fine. I was fine the last month beating money out of Dash. I am at the point of my trading career that I count good trades in mortgage payments. Earlier I counted them as days of pay or overtime shifts. I am sure people out there are trading months or years of pay at their last job. But it is comforting to see that someone that is probably pulling my yearly pay out of his trades and investments sees what I see. Makes me think that so long as I don't go fully reee on my margin trades and position size I can quit the rat race soon enough.
Please review the linked ideas to get an understanding of how I think and trade before you put on any orders based on my TA. I am not qualified to give financial advice or trading advice...yet.
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This does not really deserve its own idea so I am just going to add a comment here. This is basically the last chance to potentially buy Dash on a pullback that I can see. There is a potential Elliot Wave 1-5 and ABC correction which will give the strong hands one last chance to buy. Ideally the W pattern I have been looking at would be about a quick out as it was in but we don't always get that. The 3 Wave is longer than the 1 wave, so it isn't the shortest wave, which is good. Sometimes in commodities 5 is the longest wave so we are ok there. The ABC correction would end somewhere in Wave 4.
A zoom in on the 15 minute chart shows the volume around point B is way lower than point A. This suggests buyers have not yet stepped up to support this break out.
There is a rising wedge in there and I have several posts about rising wedges signifying blow off tops. That analysis is appropriate when you see something like BTC barreling towards an All Time High on a weekly or monthly chart. Here the Rising Wedge can break to the upside as a final outthrust and create a perfect bull trap.
I have not sold any of my Dash but I have closed my leveraged longs and opened a moderate sized short on this pattern. This is a moderate risk move but you can get in tight with stops.
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Just hit another multi-year high. Will be breaking down the door to ATH in a couple of months.
Trade closed manually
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BTC looks like hell so I have gone and closed my longs and am maintaining a short position on select cryptos.
@Mozzi111, Not terribly. The main thing I am looking for for a long term switch to be thrown is for DASH to get past the MTF VStop on the month. Once that happens Dash should go bonkers. It is going to require some patience as we need to close above the purple, confirm and hten run. At least 40 days.
On the short term we have a W pattern potenially playing out that one could play by the book.
Mozzi111
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@This_Guhy how high do you think dash can go this bull run?
This_Guhy
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@Mozzi111, In my (realistic) fantasies DASH goes above the 1 fib channel and finds support on it later in the next bull market. I don't want to be audacious enough to think we will get to the 2 channel but I do think we can get to 1.5 or 1.618.
VincentKaikkialla
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Yeah, but your timeline isnt accurate, bullmarket wont last that long, i think we see a Top for most altcoins around Autumn
This_Guhy
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@VincentKaikkialla, I think we are going to see a topping situation like 2013 where it is basically a half mast consolidation move. My main chart shows DASH had a 50% drawdown when it returned to its first ATH and I expect to see that happen again. Below is 2013 on BTC. It is going to be nuts.
FerroIgnique
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If DASH gets to ATHs it’s a great trade
TK-does-stocks
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I agree but it really all depends on what big Papa BTC does... DASH is the last to moon right before the Crypto bull market ends and we go into crypto winter..
This_Guhy
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@TK-does-stocks, That is the conventional understanding. Please have a look at the following ideas so you understand why I think we have a lot more upside
and have not seem our major sell signals
TK-does-stocks
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@This_Guhy, I see... this will be an exciting summer indeed :)