jangseohee

DAX, Triple Top again?

INDEX:DAX   DAX Stock Index
494 57 4
In 2007, DAX             had a triple top before the financial crisis
In 2011, DAX             has a triple top again before the major correction.
Now in 2014, seems like a similar triple top is in the process (the only different is the low after second top is lower than previous two)
YaKa PRO
2 years ago
Absolutely... the question is: how do we fit draghi's QE in that chart.. ie, do we have 11,000 or not.
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
let DAX drop to 8475 to fill the gap in Sept 2013 with solid candle which coincide previous low
Unless Mdm Y has more ammunition under her sleeve, otherwise Draghi had better think twice on the timing to fire this last trump card, because BOJ, BOC, Fed have exhausted their respectively lies about economy, meaning if ECB pull out the same trick again and it doesnt work, then the entire market will freefall faster than 2008
my put options are at least 6 months before expiry based on my conviction that the daily ups and downs are noises (though my conviction can be wrong)
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
What gap again? level/date do not tie up..
You may be right... It could take longer to develop though and potentially from slightly higher.
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
Greece is making problems at the moment...
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
The PIIGS problem was never solved
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
add a F and a NL and a SVN and a B ...
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
16 Sept 2013, there was a weekly GAP and the level is around 8400 which is also the wick created on 2nd week of Oct 2014
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Wasn't it filled in Oct14? Why does it need to go there again? (although it might)
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
though TA books never say succinctly about gap filling, the TA course i attended from a futures trader said that GAP filled by wick is only half completed, it has to be filled with SOLID candles! for this you might have to verify it :-)
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
I think this is not the strongest argument then.. It traded there which is stronger and potentially enough for a long while... I am sure history is full of unfilled gap too.
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
True, some gap was filled only after several years :-)
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
only one gap open @ 9567
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Mickette Mickette
2 years ago
No other one is left.
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
when you zoom in Sept 2013 and enlarge vertically you will see it, but your definition of gap fill with wicks is considered filled?
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
For me: YES.
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YaKa PRO YaKa
2 years ago
For me the philosophy retained is that it should have traded (should because honestly you could not pitch an idea just based on that.. it is merely an additional clue for a trade)...
I am convinced that if we could look at gaps from 1900, we would find many unfilled although 95% of them get filled in full candle or wicks (i call that shadow btw)..
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
I agree with you Yacine, definitely the GAP thing is only a complement but not constitute to be big part of my major trade
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
but as far as the potential triple top again with indicators weakening, i reckon it is at least valid to short once bearish candlestick pattern has formed
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
That´s the difference between "ardent wish" and "reality"
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
well, horizontal resistance, weakening indicator, candlestick pattern, trendline are part of my decision already, i am extremely louzy at Fib, gartley, harmonic..
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
and don´t forget... the DAX has no self-will
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
yes i get your point :-)
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Question of money management... if you can add same size at 11,000 you will be in the money at some point...
If you size to die at 10,200, well: you could die then.
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