Exactly as predicted in my last analysis (please check link below) Mr. Dax was moving up. I think it is a corrective wave 4, so the purple box in the chart is a decision-box. Either the Dax is changing its direction to a stable, impulsive uptrend (chance 25%, red line in the chart), or is completing the whole corrective pattern of one wave degree higher down to the yellow box (blue or green lines). The question is: in which wave degree we are in (cyan or purple).
Scenario 1 – red line, chance 25%
The high at 13.525 was wave 3 (cyan) and the correction pattern we are in since then is wave 4 (cyan). There is a chance, that we have seen the bottom of wave 4 (cyan) already at 11.051. If so, we are in an uptrend already. The purple box in the chart is the decision/sore point, because if the will fail at 12.120 this scenario will be invalidated.
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 35%
The high at 13.525 was wave 3 of a higher wave degree (dark green in square brackets) and the corrective pattern we are in since then is wave 4 of this wave degree – there is more space to the downside! If so, we are in the last impulsive structure (wave C of 4 as a five-wave-structure) down to complete wave 4 at around 10.400/10.200.
Scenario 3 – green line, chance 40%
The same wave degree as described in scenario 2, but with much more downforce. Wave 4 (dark green in square brackets) could easily end between 9.600 and 8.700! This we have to keep in mind.
What do we do with this information: if the Dax will fail at 12.120, we could go short to catch the downtrend to the bottom of wave 4. If the Dax will go up, we have to recount and catch the next 1-2 wave setup.
Please leave a comment or a message if you have any questions or other ideas!
Take care, tgo
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Mr. Dax is most likely ending its final sequence of the correction. Ideal target for a turning point: 10.255. Not very likely is a direct movement up. If this nevertheless will happen, we will get the long entry at the next 1-2 setup, which will built with abolutely sureness...
magnificent one: good analysis... I'm short since the trend break, today
HK-Capital-Management
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@m4riovolp3,
Thank you! I apprreciate that. We are still in the possibility of building only wave 4 (cyan), so it is important to get positions safe! I am also looking for a long entry after completing the correction. Then, I see two possibilites: big wave B up and then massively down, or a stable uptrend to ATH. We have to keep an eye on the structures.
HK-Capital-Management
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@tradingguideonline,
What concernes me now is, that we see tinker courses and that mr. dax has hitten a significant fibo-level. So tomorow will be important the get more information about the next movements. Maybe a (small) reversal...
m4riovolp3
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Nice Chart & nice idea. I'm for a long :) look at that
HK-Capital-Management
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@m4riovolp3,
Thank you, I appreciate that! Maybe you are right. If so, the bottom is a wave 4 (cyan) and Mr. Dax will start from there to a new ATM. BUT, on the other hand, it will maybe only a abc-correction pattern building at the moment (wave 4, [iv], purple), as you can see in my chart above. If so, there is a little more space on the downside to complete the correction. We are not safe until 12.120 will fall (invalidation level for the short scenario).
So or so, we will see ATMs in the next month ;-)
m4riovolp3
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@m4riovolp3, stopped out... the part of the business
HK-Capital-Management
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@m4riovolp3,
Yes, it is part of the business. Better stopped out than losing more money than calculated! I was also stopped out in WTI weeks ago... next try!