Luettis

DAX near turning point

XETR:DAX   DAX Index
After having passed 12.000 points, the german DAX (with dividends) is now approaching the next resistance at ~ 12.530 points, a fib retracement 78.6%.
In this area one can expect a correction - entering wave 4, after the final rise to wave 5, which shall have a maximum lower than the older ATH .
If my analysis is right, consisting out of fib retracement + EW-Waves, the rally should go on till summer 2019, with the mentioned correction in between.

The fundamental facts aren´t positive (falling gdp, political problems, migration crisis, energy uncertainty). From this side one cannot expect support for the index; on the contrary this gives us more reasons to expect the correction.

I think, the ECB will take all possibilities to ensure that the markets are going round, the states will be able to pay their debts, the banks will have enough liquidity for new credits. And this will lead the european indices to their final rally.

I´m curious about the political methods the ECB will consider to activate? Will it be negative interest rates, prohibiting cash, new ELA´s for the national banks, ... ?

The DAX will be driven by the political decisions - not by economical facts.

This is no trading advice!

Trade closed: target reached:
Comment: I think DAX will turn within the next time. RSI is already in overbought zone, MACD seems to be about triggering to the bottom.
The limit for this rally can be the fib retracement 78,6% (12.530), as I´ve analysed above.
The next, correcting wave, can take the DAX to levels around 11.700, minimum 11.400; a decline of approx 7% from the high.
Comment:
Comment:
it happened as predicted!!
But dont you think that the last rally is the fifth wave?
(3rd began on Mar 26 and fifth on april 10th)
Reply
Luettis ahmedse
@ahmedse, no that hasn´t been possible. Look, the turning point of wave 4 hasn´t to be lower than point 1. But that has been the case. Also wave 3 hasn´t to be the shortest of the 5 waves. It hasn´t to be the longest one, but very often it is. And from 5 waves the last one sometimes is the shortest one but the steepiest as well. So, in my opinione we´ve seen motive wave 3 and are entering correcting wave 4. But to be honest, EW often fails. It´s only one more confirmation.
Reply
ahmedse Luettis
@Luettis, thanks for explaining! it makes sense
Will mostly close at 11900-12000 and watch for daily close above or below the trend line
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