Germany has already lost its industrial strength. This is due to a catastrophic energy policy and a prolongued Euro-crisis, which lays mostly on the shoulders of the germans. As Germany is dependant of its exports the industrial basis is vital for its future. And the politicians are playing with this future as if it were a sandbox.
But it isn´t and the signs are very negative. Germany is sliding into a recession and the money policy can do nothing against it. It has already shot its powder - zero interest rates for the euro-zone, negative interest rates for banking money on ecb accounts (now coming real also for "normal" customers). Sure, the ecb, sonn under control of Ex-IMF-President Christine Lagarde, will do all, to stimulate the monetary circle and therefor breaking other rules. Whatever it takes - had been the words of the leaving Italian Mario Draghi. And she will continue with this inflationay policy.
What can we await for the markets?
On the one hand negative stimulus due to the national policy. Falling gains, badly infrastructure (not only in energy), relative high wages, high taxes, regulations, .... This will cause the industry to loose its way up and to consolidate on a lower level. Some industry will leave the country and search for better opportunities outside Europe.
On the other hand a very loose money policy, which will stimulate the asset markets, equities at first.
A temporarily rising stock whilst the industrial basis melts will cause higher volatility and probably more losses than benefits in the nearer future. Good time for traders, bad times for hodlers.
technical analysis
We´ve already seen higher volatility and this will last for some time.
1) In my opinion we´re about to reach the next high on fib retracement 78,6% (12.500) That´ll be the ending of the motive wave B, within the corrective waves A-B-C. A corrective wave C will lead the DAX to deeper levels at approx 10.600 points or below (fib retracement 38.2%)
2) 2020 will be the next presidential elections (USA) and that will surely have an impact on all markets. I suggest a temporarily recover will take part, before the negative downtrend continues.
3) In the long run the fundamental facts will gain the upper hand (even with a lowering monetary policy) - this will lead the stock markets to very low levels (at least 30% less than today)
But it isn´t and the signs are very negative. Germany is sliding into a recession and the money policy can do nothing against it. It has already shot its powder - zero interest rates for the euro-zone, negative interest rates for banking money on ecb accounts (now coming real also for "normal" customers). Sure, the ecb, sonn under control of Ex-IMF-President Christine Lagarde, will do all, to stimulate the monetary circle and therefor breaking other rules. Whatever it takes - had been the words of the leaving Italian Mario Draghi. And she will continue with this inflationay policy.
What can we await for the markets?
On the one hand negative stimulus due to the national policy. Falling gains, badly infrastructure (not only in energy), relative high wages, high taxes, regulations, .... This will cause the industry to loose its way up and to consolidate on a lower level. Some industry will leave the country and search for better opportunities outside Europe.
On the other hand a very loose money policy, which will stimulate the asset markets, equities at first.
A temporarily rising stock whilst the industrial basis melts will cause higher volatility and probably more losses than benefits in the nearer future. Good time for traders, bad times for hodlers.
technical analysis
We´ve already seen higher volatility and this will last for some time.
1) In my opinion we´re about to reach the next high on fib retracement 78,6% (12.500) That´ll be the ending of the motive wave B, within the corrective waves A-B-C. A corrective wave C will lead the DAX to deeper levels at approx 10.600 points or below (fib retracement 38.2%)
2) 2020 will be the next presidential elections (USA) and that will surely have an impact on all markets. I suggest a temporarily recover will take part, before the negative downtrend continues.
3) In the long run the fundamental facts will gain the upper hand (even with a lowering monetary policy) - this will lead the stock markets to very low levels (at least 30% less than today)
Trade active:
Trade active:
falling volume
RSI-Tops in a row are lowering!
RSI-Tops in a row are lowering!
Trade active: