DAX finally peaked this week. 11000 here we go

INDEX:DAX   DAX Stock Index
516 13 9
My last try this week (3 days ago) was way too early. This time there is a potential top and enough bulls to get smashed after a very overextended upwards streak for several days.

Entry: 11545
Stop Loss: 11650
Target: 10900
The DAX peak is starting to get reversed far more quickly than I hoped. I had seen that the markets around the world are in a transition phase back to being bullish, but my idea was that the DAX would at least test the lower end before it also starts to rally.

Now the peak from last Thursday might get taken out with a bullish breakout just three days after the first decline. Based on the bullish hammer candle. Unless this is read as being a "Hanging Man" and not as a bullish hammer here. Tuesday (today) is major decision day for the rest of this week.

Here is a bar chart and a candlestick chart with Monday's close:



P.S. "Hanging Man" briefly explained and here
ChartArt ChartArt
The automatic candlestick pattern detection script shows this:


ChartArt ChartArt
My DAX forecast was right on the money. Target hit dead on :) Projected low for this expected strong move down as posted on my chart was 10895 and the actual low of Wednesday, August 12, 2015 was 10892.88

Here is an update of what happened after my sell recommendation. A candlestick, bar and Heiken Ashi chart:



Perfect Analysis! TOP! Here is my similar view thx for sharing..i have nearly the same view: The Dax pullback stopped at his 61,8 fibo-retracement. The Index could not break this Level.
Yesterday we have seen a very weak tradingday with the result, that the shortterm-uptrend broke.
A new 1-2-3 appears (red counting). what means that a Test of the former LOW @ 11.000 should be exspected. The Chart turns bullish again only with Prices above 11.665 ("3") respective 11.820 ("1").
SHould the market reach the Level of the former LOW @ 11.000 where the EMA & SMA 200 are based i exspect a new up-wave with new Highs at the Level of my "target autumn Rally"
Trading below the last valid orange "3" @ 1.0645 should initiate a fast selloff

Green/Grey arrows: exspected way
Grey: Alternative way

For further Information about my countings have a look @
Introduction into 1-2-3 Trading Pattern


former Analysis:
The Traders dream became true!

The Traders dream became true! The pullback stopped @ the 61,8 fibo. Since we have seen the Low @ 11.040 the market decided to go up further. Now we have resached zthe max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau.

Bearish Szenario: Should the ultrashortterm trend be hurt (Grey arrow) we possible will see a dip to the former LOW @ 11.040. Will the market fall below this Level, the next target would be the LOW @ 10.650. On that way down are based the EMA and SMA 200. They should be a strong Support! If we trade below the last orange "3", i exspect a fast selloff-move.
Bullish szenario: If the index is strong enough to take the last green "2" out of the market, my autumn Rally target can be aimed.
Hybrid Szenario: The market can dip to ist EMA and SMA 200 without hurting any trand or bullish Szenario. Should the market dip to the MA`s i exspect a BIG UP MOVE

Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo?
Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo?
Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo - the maximal correction level? This would be a traders dream :-)
All Tradingsessions above its 200 sma/ema seem to be bullish anymore.
The range between 10.600-11.060 is neutral
A sustainable close below the ema/sma 200 are selling signals, prices below the last LOW @ 10.600 can generate a selloff
+1 Reply
ChartArt MaryJane
Thank you for sharing your detailed analysis. As I just commented below to jangseohee, I still think we can go higher next week. That would be your idea "Should the market dip to the MA`s I expect a BIG UP MOVE".
On its way down to kiss the 11.000 again
sorry, here is the correct Chart
+1 Reply
ChartArt jangseohee
Very good chart! This is exactly what I had in my mind when I posted my chart.

A logical move back down to support and then a breakout to the upside in the coming week.
Unless this turns even more ugly due to very bearish black swan event news next Tuesday (or Wednesday).
jangseohee ChartArt
yes you are right.. the yellow critical support zone
Nice work. And a great call. Kudos!
i am not good at all on EW counts and fibo
yet another method to detect euphoria is by using channel (when done correctly)
it can get very near to the top
GER30, How does a defibrillator works?

using smaller channel
and the outcome
Great job man!
+2 Reply
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